2020年3月30日星期一

Unknown Is Real Danger

A known danger is not a real threat if one can deal with it.  An unknown danger is the real threat when one looks the other way. CDC website used to list number of cases related to Wuhan, I remember it was like only 3 or 5, unfortunately it no longer shows on the website and I did not keep a record. Anyway, the point is Wuhan as the known danger was dealt with and it did not end up spreading to the U.S and other regions, it is the same with other regions outside Wuhan inside China mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau, which are closest to Wuhan and had the most potential exposure. Korea is a rare case as the hotspot spread started with a religious cult group.
The unknown danger was over-looked, which was within the U.S itself, it is the youths, healthcare centers, clinics, hospitals, bars and clubs, the homeless, the churches, the airplanes, the cruises, and the borders with Canada and Mexico ...... Wuhan danger was unknown for about a month before it was known and dealt with. U.S looked the other way. The unknown had been there for at least four months. Even though the unknown is known now, still little has been done to stop it from spreading. That is why U.S is where it is now. Or maybe Trump and G7 leaders had known from the beginning what it was, but decided "herd immunity" was the answer?

April 8 report research by Adriana Heguy, a geneticist at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, found out New York Covid-19 came from Europe, a scientific experimental proof of my above argument!
April 9: Taiwan's six deaths so far all had nothing to do with Wuhan or China. An earlier report that a planeload of 361 evacuated from Wuhan all tested negative.
April 10: Once WHO model Singapore is fast becoming a hotspot due to "unknown" dangers from migrant workers and people from other countries other than China. Another proof of the above argument.
April 21: Singapore is out of control, adding 1,111 cases in one single day with total 10,141 confirmed and 11 dead. BTW the outbreak in Europe reportedly came from Singapore too
Oct 2: what has been happening in the US with Trump shows actively down-playing a real danger is more dangerous than the danger itself. 
Dec 17: recent reports confirmed Trump's pointed man, science adviser Paul Alexander, and Health and Human Services assistant secretary for public affairs Michael Caputo, pushed for herd immunity since, at least, early July, allowing so-called non-high risk groups to expose themselves to the virus, thus forcing kindergartens and schools to keep open! Alexander also spent months attacking government scientists and pushing to shape official statements to be more favorable to Trump, knew Covid-19 disproportionately affected minority populations but suppressed that information, delayed the famed Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports and watered down the guidance. This is truly a cover-up and crime against humanity! 

Taiwan Under-Reporting Covid-19 Cases

Taiwan death case:
1. Feb 25: no travel history, contact source unknown
2. March 20: contact source unknown
3. March 29: contact source unknown
4. March 29: Europe travel guide
5. March 29: travel to Spain
6. April 9: travel to Egypt

Taiwan reported 306 confirmed Covid-19 cases so far but 5 deaths, which are way too many as it has a very good healthcare system and most people who travel between Taiwan and the Mainland are of sound age business people. Recently the Taiwan government has tightened control of media, especially internet, many were charged for alledged misinformation. It is very likely the government is purposely under reporting cases to help it politicise the issue with WHO, which it has been doing.
Hong Kong has many more cases but Macau has very few, both are logical. Hong Kong is an open city with people coming in and out from the world over. Interesting to note, majority of the cases has been in the last few weeks, mostly imports from U.S, UK, India, and other regions and countries, not from Wuhan or the Mainland. In the early months January and February, there were few cases of community cluster transmission as Hong Kong took early steps screening and tracking travellers from the mainland. In addition of the recent imports, bars and bands, mostly westerners and Filipinos, now have become the new hotspots for community infection, mainly because these travellers had not been rigorously screened and they did not wear masks while they went about the city. Most people who go to Macau transit through Hong Kong or Guangdong, which serve as the primary screening barrier for Macau, this partially explains its low numbers.

April 6 report Taiwan ruling party health officials went on TV and internet to ask people to reuse their masks by "cooking" them with a rice cooker, then eat their rice again! Yummy rice enriched with protein and genetic RNA materials! Many "stable geniuses" in Taiwan, I guess. And they claim, experiments proved that people can "cook" their masks five times before discarding them. Everybody in the world had thought Taiwan had plenty of masks for its residents, as it just sent out to other countries 10 million masks for free a few days ago! Why even bother with re-use?
April 9 Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus finally fired back at Taiwan after suffering 3 months of personal attacks. Sixth death out of 382 reportedly confirmed.
April 19 Taiwan reported 21 sailors infected after visiting Palau but Palau insisted it had no domestic cases.  First the visit was more than 1 month ago (March 12-15), if it were from Palau and undetected enroute back to Taiwan until now, a lot more should be infected by now. Second, Palau has no connection with China mainland, so it can not blame China this time. Third, Palau relies on Taiwan on everything, including medicals, so Taiwan can essentially control the narratives here.
April 22 Singapore report, Taiwanese Sun Szu-Yen intentionally harassed Devika Rani Muthu Krishna on 12 April at about 4.43pm at the entrance of ION Orchard by sneezing in her direction and shouting “shut up” in English. Her alleged offence is a contravention of the Protection from Harassment Act.  In a separate charge, on 4 June last year, Sun threw a model globe, a plastic chair, a vacuum cleaner, a glass bottle and a few pencils down from level three of her condominium at Fifth Avenue, at about 10pm. Her charge relates to endangering the personal safety of others through a rash act.
May 4: WHO read out the email from Taiwan which contained nothing of a warning. Unless Taiwan came up with new evidence, clearly Taiwan lied again.
May 11: McEnany, Kushner and O'Brien wore Taiwan masks at briefing. Taiwan donated 500k and WH kept 3,600. Cheap stunt by Taiwan and WH, again.
May 19: Taiwan's attempt together with U.S to smear WHO and China at the World Health Assembly failed.
May 20: Trump approved sale to Taiwan 18 MK-48 Mod6 Advanced Technology Heavy Weight Torpedoes and related equipment for an estimated cost of $180 million.
Aug 24: study in Changhua about 2% population have antibodies, another proof Taiwan underreporting for political gains. 
Sept 2: Japan and Vietnam report imported cases from Taiwan. Hong Kong as well.
Oct 7: Japan reported at least 3 imported cases from Taiwan in recent days, France as well
Oct 13: Japan reported 3 import cases from Taiwan
April 30, 2021: 21 confirmed officially relating to China Airlines since last week, many sources unknown. 
May 11: at least 35 confirmed from the CA cluster, rotten English Cabbage apparently tried to hide the truth in order to be invited to WHO meeting on May 24, but failed. 
May 15: 180 local cases announced whereas only 16 on May 12, 13 on May 13 and 29 on May 14. Claimed single source (cargo pilot back from the US). If true, either Taiwan pandemic measures are a joke or they are hiding something. Wait until the UK, Africa, French or Indian variants come to the island. 
May 16: 206 local cases, actual 245
May 17: 333 local cases and someone dreamed/posted exact # before officials, actual 406
May 18: 240 local cases, actual 325
May 19: 267 local cases, actual 359
May 20: 286 local cases, actual 360. Funny #s over last 4 days as govt limits # of test each day!
May 21: 312 local cases, actual 349. Insiders say Tsai purposely limits # of tests so won't look bad.
May 22: 321 local cases plus 400 miscounted last week!
May 23: 457 local cases (170 missed) and 6 more dead.
May 24: 590 local cases (256 missed) and 6 more dead.
May 25: 542 local cases (261 missed) and 6 more dead.
May 26: 633 local cases (331 missed) and 11 more dead.
May 27: 667 local cases (266 missed) and 13 dead.
May 28: 555 local cases (258 missed) and 19 dead.
May 29: 486 local cases (166 missed) and 21 dead.
May 30: 355 local cases and 11 dead.
May 31: 347 local cases and 15 dead.
June 1: 327 local cases with 13 dead.
June 2: 549 local cases with 12 dead.
June 3: 583 local cases with 17 dead.
June 4: 472 local cases with 21 dead.
June 5: 511 local cases with 38 dead.
June 6: 343 local cases with 36 dead.
June 7: 211 local cases with 26 dead.
June 8: 219 local cases with 22 dead.
June 9: 274 local cases with 25 dead.
June 10: 263 local cases with 28 dead.
June 11: 286 local cases with 24 dead.
June 12: 250 local cases with 26 dead.
June 13: 174 local cases with 26 dead. Total death 437 out of 12,921 cases. Death rate 3.4%! Hong Kong 210 dead since 2020, only 1.8%!
June 14: 185 local cases with 15 dead.
June 15: 132 local cases with 8 dead.
June 16: 167 local cases with 18 dead.
June 17: 175 local cases with 19 dead.
June 18: 187 local cases with 21 dead.
June 19: 127 local cases with 20 dead. 58 years old man from Taiwan tested with Delta after arriving Macao on June 17.
June 20: 107 local cases with 11 dead. 58 years old Taiwanese lied, was in India Feb-May!
June 21: 75 local cases with 20 dead! Case # way under counted.
June 22: 78 local cases with 6 dead. Total 575 dead, 4.1% death rate out of total 14,157 cases. HK 210 dead out of 11,896 cases, 1.7%!
June 23: 104 local cases with 24 dead! Total dead 599! Total cases 14,261!  4.2% fatality.
June 24: 129 local cases with 6 dead.
June 25: 76 local cases with 5 dead.
June 26: 78 local cases with 13 dead.
June 27: 88 local cases with 9 dead.
June 28: 60 local cases with 3 dead.
June 29: 54 local cases with 8 dead.
June 30: 55 local cases with 5 dead.
July 1: 47 local cases with 13 dead. Fire in quarantine hotel killed at least 4 and injured dozens.
July 2: 57 local cases with 15 dead.
July 3: 76 local cases with 10 dead.
July 4: 37 local cases with 2 dead.
July 5: 28 local cases with 1 dead.
July 6: 27 local cases with 17 dead!
July 7: 39 local cases with 9 dead.
July 8: 18 local cases with 3 dead. Level 3 measures extended again to July 26!
July 9: 32 local cases with 12 dead!
July 10: 31 local cases with 6 dead.
July 11: 28 local cases with 4 dead.
July 12: 23 local cases with 1 dead.
July 13: 28 local cases with 6 dead.
July 14: 17 local cases with 6 dead. Total 15,328 cases, 753 dead.
July 15: 14 local cases with 6 dead.
July 16: 29 local cases with 4 dead.
July 17: 8 local cases with 1 dead.
July 18: 15 local cases with 4 dead.
July 19: 15 local cases with 1 dead.
July 20: 18 local cases with 4 dead. Total 15,447 cases, 773 dead.
July 21: 16 local cases with 5 dead.
July 22: 30 local cases with 4 dead.
July 23: 23 local cases with 2 dead. To move to Level 2 restrictions on 7/27.
July 24: 24 local cases with 2 dead.
July 25: 12 local cases with 0 dead.
July 26: 10 local cases with 0 dead.
July 27: 16 local cases with 1 dead.
July 28: 18 local cases.
July 29: 16 local cases.
July 30: 21 local cases.
July 31: 11 local cases.
Aug 1: 12 local cases with 2 dead.
Aug 2: 12 local cases.
Aug 3: 16 local cases with 2 dead.
Aug 4: 20 local cases.
Aug 5: 6 local cases.
Aug 6: 10 local cases with 3 dead.
Aug 7: 6 local cases with 12 dead.
Aug 8: 4 local cases with 3 dead.
Aug 9: 4 local cases with 4 dead.
Aug 10: 3 local cases with 1 dead.
Aug 11: 12 local cases with 2 dead.
Aug 12: 4 local cases with 1 dead.
Aug 29: 13 local cases with 1 dead.
Sept 7: 8 local cases. Kindergarten cluster! 
Sept 8: 7 local cases.

2020年3月28日星期六

Interesting Case of Germany vs Hubei

By March 28, Germany has 53,340 confirmed cases. The number is as accurate as possible as Germany has been testing early and as many as needed. Even though Germany enforced stricter measures such as number of people gathering late March, it did not quarantine or lock down a whole city or region, but did take similar strict medical and social measures like those in Hubei province, thus offering another interesting benchmark. Germany has 82.8 million people, 24.3 million or 41% more than Hubei province, yet its infection number is comparable with Hubei's by March 7, which indicates Germany's pandemic (and Europe) is about 1 month later on the Covid-19 curve. Without strict quarantine and true lockdown, the numbers may continue to rise for the next 2 to 4 weeks, but Germany should be able to cope better than any other country given its logical culture, robust healthcare and so much is known about the virus already.
As a comparison, U.S has four times of Germany's population, discounting its vast land but counting more the fact U.S counter-virus measures much worse than those in Germany, it can be roughly estimated at least over 250,000 people should have been infected in the U.S by now.

Tracking case numbers in Germany:
April 5: 100,123 confirmed with 1,584 dead
April 6: 103,375 confirmed with 1,810 dead. Exceeded Hubei proportionwise, difference was lockdown. Also means it was in Germany before January.
April 7: 107,663 confirmed 2,016 dead. Doubled in about 10 days.
April 8: 113,296 confirmed 2,349 dead
April 9: 118,181 confirmed 2,607 dead
April 10: 122,171 confirmed 2,767 dead
April 11: 125,452 confirmed 2,871 dead
April 12: 127,854 confirmed 3,022 dead
April 13: 130,072 confirmed 3,194 dead
April 14: 131,359 confirmed 3,294 dead
April 15: 134,753 confirmed 3,804 dead
April 16: 137,698 confirmed 4,052 dead
April 17: 139,134 confirmed 4,203 dead
April 18: 143,724 confirmed 4,538 dead
April 19: 145,742 confirmed 4,642 dead
April 20: 147,065 confirmed 4,862 dead
April 21: 148,291 confirmed 5,033 dead
April 22: 150,648 confirmed 5,315 dead
April 23: 153,129 confirmed 5,575 dead
April 24: 154,999 confirmed 5,760 dead
April 25: 156,418 confirmed 5,873 dead
April 26: 157,770 confirmed 5,976 dead
April 27: 158,434 confirmed 6,061 dead
April 28: 159,912 confirmed 6,314 dead
April 29: 161,197 confirmed 6,405 dead
April 30: 163,009 confirmed 6,623 dead
May 1: 163,855 confirmed 6,670 dead
May 2: 164,967 confirmed 6,812 dead
May 3: 165,664 confirmed 6,866 dead
May 4: 166,152 confirmed 6,993 dead. Study shows 1.8 million or more than 10 times of people infected.
May 5: 167,007 confirmed 6,993 dead. Appears to have turned the corner.
May 6: 168,162 confirmed 7,275 dead.
May 7: 169,430 confirmed 7,392 dead.
May 8: 170,588 confirmed 7,510 dead.
May 9: 171,324 confirmed 7,549 dead.
May 10: 171,879 confirmed 7,569 dead.
May 11: 172,576 confirmed 7,661 dead.
May 12: 173,171 confirmed 7,738 dead.
May 13: 174,098 confirmed 7,859 dead.
May 14: 174,975 confirmed 7,928 dead.
May 15: 175,678 confirmed 7,999 dead.
May 16: 176,244 confirmed 8,027 dead. Germany's relative success due to 1) test early, in March between 120,000 and 500,000 people each week; 2) prepared, with spending more on healthcare per capita than most other countries, and having the second-most critical-care beds per capita in Europe; 3) lockdown early on March 22; 4) luck, average age infected with was 46.
May 17: 176,651 confirmed 8,049 dead.
May 18, 177,289 confirmed 8,123 dead.
May 19: 177,827 confirmed 8,193 dead. Looks like the end of the tunnel
May 20: 178,494 confirmed 8,265 dead.
May 21: 179,021 confirmed 8,309 dead.
May 22: 179,713 confirmed 8,352 dead.
May 23: 179,986 confirmed 8,366 dead.
May 24: 180,328 confirmed 8,371 dead.
May 25: 180,789 confirmed 8,428 dead.
May 26: 181,288 confirmed 8,498 dead.
May 27: 181,895 confirmed 8,533 dead.
May 28: 182,452 confirmed 8,570 dead.
May 29: 183,019 confirmed 8,594 dead.
May 30: 183,294 confirmed 8,600 dead.
May 31: 183,494 confirmed 8,605 dead. Good numbers shaping up.
June 1: 183,765 confirmed 8,618 dead.
June 2: 184,091 confirmed 8,674 dead.
June 3: 184,425 confirmed 8,699 dead.
June 4: 184,923 confirmed 8,736 dead.
June 5: 185,414 confirmed 8,763 dead.
June 6: 185,696 confirmed 8,769 dead. Clearly improving.
June 7: 185,869 confirmed 8,776 dead. all lives matter. congratulations to the government and people for doing a good job containing the virus!
June 8: 186,205 confirmed 8,783 dead.
June 9: 186,516 confirmed 8,831 dead.
June 10: 186,886 confirmed 8,844 dead.
June 11: 187,059 confirmed 8,851 dead.
June 12: 187,251 confirmed 8,863 dead.
June 13: 187,423 confirmed 8,867 dead.
June 14: 187,671 confirmed 8,870 dead.
June 15: 188,044 confirmed 8,885 dead.
June 16: 188,382 confirmed 8,910 dead.
June 17: 190,179 confirmed 8,927 dead.
June 18: 190,120 confirmed 8,946 dead.
June 19: 190,660 confirmed 8,960 dead.
June 20: 191,216 confirmed 8,961 dead. Germany looking good.
June 21: 191,575 confirmed 8,962 dead.
June 22: 192,119 confirmed 8,969 dead. Seems reversing...
June 23: 192,778 confirmed 8,986 dead.
June 24: 193,254 confirmed 9,003 dead.
June 25: 193,785 confirmed 9,012 dead.
June 26: 194,399 confirmed 9,026 dead.
June 27: 194,689 confirmed 9,026 dead. Good but US poses a major threat now.
June 28: 194,864 confirmed 9,029 dead.
June 29: 195,392 confirmed 9,041 dead.
June 30: 195,832 confirmed 9,052 dead.
July 1: 196,324 confirmed 9,061 dead.
July 2: 196,717 confirmed 9,064 dead.
July 3: 197,000 confirmed 9,073 dead.
July 4: 197,418 confirmed 9,081 dead.
July 5: 197,558 confirmed 9,086 dead.
July 6: 198,057 confirmed 9,092 dead.
July 7: 198,355 confirmed 9,103 dead.
July 8: 198,765 confirmed 9,115 dead.
July 9: 199,198 confirmed 9,125 dead.
July 10: 199,588 confirmed 9,130 dead.
July 11: 199,812 confirmed 9,134 dead.
July 12: 199,950 confirmed 9,134 dead. Zero deadth!
July 13: 200,436 confirmed 9,139 dead.
July 14: 200,766 confirmed 9,144 dead.
July 15: 201,252 confirmed 9,148 dead.
July 16: 201,836 confirmed 9,157 dead.
July 17: 202,345 confirmed 9,160 dead.

Curious Case of New York vs Wuhan

It is widely believed that U.S has been vastly under-testing and under-reporting it's TRUE Covid-19 situation, and now the states are simply catching up with testing. As such, the surge in reported infected patients is just the tip of an iceberg. Most experts believe the true number should be around 5-10 times bigger.
As of March 28, New York state has 53,455 confirmed cases with 883 deaths whereas New Yor City has over 30,000 cases (precise number unknown) with 672 deaths, which means over 260,000 in New York state and over 150,000 in NYC have had Covid-19. In Wuhan, the reported confirmed cases reached 22,368 and Hubei province 25,905 by March 7. The lockdown started around January 23, theses numbers truly reflect the situations before quarantine measures were taken, therefore offer sensible comparison with the numbers from New York. To make the comparison more meaningful, the real infection number in Wuhan was about 46,000 (obtained by % of those HK residents evacuated from Wuhan but later confirmed, i.e. % missed out due to quarantine) and Hubei about 52,000. The epicenter remained in Wuhan and did not spread to other regions as fast as what is happening in the U.S. Wuhan has a population of 11 million whereas NYC only 8.6 million, but NYC has 4 times more infections than Wuhan, is it because New Yorkers more prone to the virus or has the virus been in NYC much much longer?
Same can be said about New York state and Hubei province. New York state has 19.5 million people while Hubei 58.5 million, but New York state has 5 times more cases than Hubei, which shows not only has the virus been around for much much longer in New York but also has spread much much faster and wider!

2020年3月27日星期五

Understanding Coronavirus

The information involving coronavirus is still evolving and quite confusing at the moment. Understanding what it is and how it came about is fundamentally important for everyone. No matter what, this is an opportunity for Chinese government to crack down wild life sales throughout China, which just pasted a law to do so, but I hope the enforcement will be strong and continue into the future. It is wrong, however to link it to a whole Chinese culture, as the majority in China do not, only a handful people mostly in south China still have the fancy of eating the exotics. But if it is a creation or leak from a lab, whether Wuhan or Fort Detrick, there should be an investigation and put a stop to it forever.

First, coronavirus is an ancient RNA based virus, as natural as the nature gets, and older than life, all lives, let alone humans, as we know. They find their lasting hosts, mostly in bats, ephemeral and seasonal, cause little harm to the bats. For those village people who live near bat caves, already exposed to the virus over time, they too like bats have developed antibodies and learned to live with the virus. However, once in a while, it finds another intermediary host, through a bat, in mammals, before jumping into humans causing an epidemic or pandemic.
Bat born coronavirus is the cause of the four types of the most common colds, which target mainly noses and throats, which we humans have found peace and been coping with it with relative ease, for who knows how long. The more severe lung targeting coronavirus only caught the world attention since 2003, mainly because science and technology had developed to such an extent we understand virus at more detailed molecular level. Actually, there have been a total of 6 severe bat borne coronavirus outbreaks, namely:
1976 Africa Ebola virus: intermediary host unclear, 2014 outbreak got world attention but first detected in 1976
1994 Australia Hendra virus: through horse to human
1998 Malaysia Nipah virus: through pig
2003 Guangzhou/HK SARS virus: through civet cat
2012 Jordan MERS virus: through camel
2019 Wuhan SARS-Cov-2: intermediary unknown
It appears, the more severe coronaviruses have began crossing the line and migrating from the South hemisphere to the North, anything to do with global warming?

Also little reported in other animals are 1950s US Delaware chicken bronchitis virus and 2016 Guangdong Qingyuan Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome (SADS), in which the virus has 98% genetic similarity as bat borne coronavirus (this also shows it is highly plausible the "Wuhan Five" US athletes might have had an earlier strain of the virus which mainly caused diarrhea just like in the pigs).

Coronavirus is a simple mechanism consists of a backbone encased in a protein membrane (often called Spike Protein). There are three key elements: backbone RNA that causes the actual infection by ordering the host cell to reproduce the virus and henceforth triggering lethal immune response that causes damage or even death to its human host; Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) that looks like a mushroom head (no reference to Trump here) that fits into Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE 2) in human cell; and a Cleavage Site (CS) that cuts and fuses the backbone into the human cell. RBD is the probability of infection, the tighter the binding, the more likely to invade a host cell. CS is the success rate of infection. The problem with SARS-Cov-2 is that both RBD and CS are almost perfect, therefore highly infectious once entered into a human body.

The backbone appears to mutate quite slowly relative to the common cold viruses. The key question now is: was the perfect fit of the spike protein developed before or after it entered the human host?
Some researchers suggested a single introduction caused the pandemic, which suggests the former case and supports the suspicion Fort Detrick Maatje Banassi as Patient Zero. After all, CDC report showed Fort Detrick did experiment by introducing deadly pathogenic agents into primates. Fort Detrick needs to come clean on what exactly it did. If the snudgey fit was developed after it entered the human hosts, the virus must had been with us for a long time, at least weeks or months before December, and Wuhan can not be the origin of the first introduction. In this scenario, retro investigation into past severe pneumonia cases, including both vaping and flu related, especially in the US before December last year, is critical. The fact the five US military athletes were all sick with diarrhea in Wuhan in October indicates they might have been carrying an earlier strain of the coronavirus which is similar to SADS in swine.  The hospital where they were treated (or less likely other places they visited) in Wuhan is then the most likely place for Patient Zero of Covid-19, a super host patient with weak immune system incubated the mutation of the more contagious "mushroom head" of the Spike Protein (again no reference to Trump here but he does reign supreme as the "corona" head of the most powerful nation ever on earth).  Hope further studies will find the correct answer.

March 28: by analyzing and comparing the numbers between Wuhan, Hubei, Germany and U.S, it is found Germany (and Europe) is about one month late but U.S is much earlier, i.e. U.S is either earlier than Wuhan or shares the same source of Covid-19 as Wuhan. The scenario of a single introduction of a mature virus by Maatje Banassi from Fort Detrick is very plausible. It is vital to understand her whereabouts from August to December (at least October to November).
By now the only trustworthy numbers that stood up to time, triangulation, and multiple checks with facts and other numbers, are from Germany, Hong Kong and China Mainland. Of course, the numbers before mid January from China mainland should be discounted as the virus pathology was not well understood and testing methodology had not been perfected. Remember one day the number suddenly jumped by many folds (forgot exactly which day) because more precise diagnostic and testing methods were established. After mid January, no country or region should have any excuse of not having concise up to date numbers or have the situation NOT under control. What has been happening in Italy and Spain is partially unfortunate as their healthcare systems are clearly not up to the task, but what has been happening in the U.S, the most powerful nation ever on earth, defies any logic.
June 2: CDC now says the virus had been in US at least in January. Australia had one of the worst forest fires since June last year, and US West Coast also. Bats in Australia and US West Coast should be examined.
June 14: report Amazon deforestation worst in May. Time to investigate the bats there too.
Oct 13  "Covid: Why bats are not to blame, say scientists": "Outbreaks of emerging diseases have been linked to human destruction of nature. When forests or grasslands are razed to graze cattle, to grow soy or to build roads and settlements, wild animals are forced ever closer to humans and livestock, giving viruses an opportunity to jump ship."
Nov 4: Denmark plans to cull its mink population after coronavirus mutation spreads to humans, which means the virus not necessarily have come from bats alone.
28 Apri 2021: India reports 350,000 cases with near 3,000 deaths per day, actual situation is much worse. The run-away disaster was due to "triple" or multiple mutations, and of course mishandling by the government and deep rooted religious culture. India was relatively unscathed from the original strains of corobavirus, why? Either it takes a lot to hit the Indians given its long history of pure hygiene conditions, or most Indians were partially immune to the original strains as it was originated from there. 

2020年3月26日星期四

NYC Worse than Diamond Princess

New York City mayor Blasio said at least half of New Yorkers will be infected, far worse than the case of Diamond Princess. How possible? The only difference perhaps is whether most, if not all, people wear masks or not!

U.S now officially has the honor of World First again, having the most cases of confirmed Covid-19 than any other country. MAGA, America First, another milestone achieved. Thank you Pompeo and Trump.

"Xi Little Upset with Trump"

Trump called Xi, "I am little upset with you."
Xi, "why?"
Trump, "you should have told me earlier."
Xi, "how early?"
Trump, "September."
Xi, "I did not know then.
Trump, "really? I must have confused you with Pompeo."
Xi, "I am a little upset with you too."
Trump, "why?"
Xi, "you should have told me earlier."
Trump, "when?"
Xi, "before September."
Trump, "but why?"
Xi, "you should have told me what Fort Detrick leaked out."
Trump, "sorry but they did not tell me."
Xi, "then how about the vaping deaths?"
Trump, "they only told me to ask Baron to stop vaping for a while."
Xi, "well, at least you should have told me what your military athletes are carrying in them?"
Trump, "Pompeo told me it was a secret."

On another call, Trump said Melania seemed very happy with the coronavirus. Asked why, she said, "social distancing" is what she prefers and has been practicing ever since she was pregnant.

Note: above is a made-up satire in case anyone is wondering.
There is speculation online patient zero is a Matt Benassi who worked at Fort Detrick, and patient one is a Maatje Benassi who represented the U.S military and competed in World Military Sports Competition in Wuhan end of October.

After note:
June 25 US now has at least over 2.5m confirmed cases with over 126k dead, telling Trump earlier for one year would not have made any difference.
Sept 10: Bob Woodward book "Rage" Trump knew how severe the virus was before 7 Feb!
Sept 18: "60 Minutes" interview with Woodward confirmed Trump knew by Jan 28 the latest it would be like the Spanish Flu or worse. Redfield knew it was bad on Jan 1, if he did not report up he should be prosecuted.
Sept 14, 2021: "Newly revealed emails add to 'growing body of evidence' that Trump was aware of coronavirus threat early on"

2020年3月25日星期三

Covid-19 Originated from the U.S?

Trump virus trump Trump politics. April 22 Rick Bright fought back his demotion from BARDA.

The recent actions and reactions led by Trump, and more so by Pompeo, desperately trying to pin down the origin of the virus to Wuhan or China, claiming that China tried to spread misinformation all because of a low level foreign ministry spokeperson's tweet, smell overkill.
Curiosity search led me to two articles in early March by Larry Romanoff, "China's coronavirus: a shocking update: did the virus originate in the US?" and "Covid-19: further evidence that the virus originated in the US." posted on globalresearch.ca.  Noted Romanoff had a Russian sounding name and currently resided in China, so his opinion may favor China. But the articles themselves contain indisputable scientific and timeline details, which Pompeo and Trump should be able to order his team to investigate and answer.
It was the Japanese TV Asahi first questioned the virus' origin and claimed it was from the US on February 23, followed by Taiwan TV on February 28. Wuhan and most of China cases only had strain H1 and virus family group C - a second generation coronavirus, while US had all five family groups of 4 generations, Taiwan had two family groups and one of which could only have come from US or Australia. A Japanese couple with no China travel history had Covid-19 after coming back from Hawaii. Many of the early confirmed cases in Taiwan were traced back to unknown pneumonia before Covid-19 was known and only discovered when old samples were analyzed again.
In September 2019 over 200 vaping related death in the US could not be explained and have not been investigated against Coronavirus. Studies ruled out it was due to e-cigarette itself.
US Army Bioweapon lab Fort Detrick have had series security breaches:
In 2001, anthrax attacks by senior bioweapon researcher Bruce Ivins
In 2009, storing pathogens not listed on inventory
In 2018, storm flooded its biowaste water treatment plant, followed by worst flu season in the US.
In August 2019, was ordered to stop research as contaminated waste could have leaked out deadliest viruses and pathogens
CDC investigation report: "non-human primates" infected with a "select agent" plus at least seven other major safety/security violations that could endanger the public health.

Just watched the video by TruthLeaks George Webb, a long one. He is from DC area, with him at the table were 3 dudes and 4 gals, and in the background two other walkabout and sitting down. They all white mature adults, one grandpa with 15 grandkids, all appear to be intelligent, some worked in IT or FBI agencies, none appeared to have anything to do with China. They call themselves "truth hounds", but I would call "truth geeks", intelligent, fact based logical people who like to seek truths through data and links. They actually followed Asahi TV report and did their own digging, believe patient zero is Maatje Benassi, other related names mentioned or written on whiteboard are Maatt Benassi and Benny Benassi. Both Maatje and Maatt are drivers for NATO bioweapon materials and linked to Fort Detrick.

March 24: "Did the US 'bug' Wuhan and who are the Wuhan Five?" madhousenews.com by Renee Parsons, another person who has nothing to do with China. With diplomatic immunity, US athletes (Wuhan 5) could get through Chinese customs without being fully checked and it could be nano sized micro weapon hard to detect, Wuhan was targeted also because of 5G.

Pompeo, who publicly boasted lying, cheating, stealing, sabotaging and blackmailing is CIA credo, his behaviors (and CIA) from the very beginning (actually even before the outbreak in December) until now are extremely questionable. What are his true objectives? What is he trying to hide? He seems to have known and prepared even before the virus was discovered. US admin conducted pandemic drills in September just before the outbreak, CIA disinformation of Wuhan biolab came out immediately after Wuhan outbreak, US was first to ban China travel whileas Europe and the rest of the world appear to care less as most believed it would be a local Wuhan or most China epidemic, once the biolab disinformation was debunked, Pompeo and team have been trying desperately to make the world believe and label Wuhan and China as the origin of coronavirus....... Why?

April 5 article "Coronavirus: Pentagon 'can't recall' if US had intelligence about Covid-19 in 2019" by Alex Woodward from The Independent: "Secretary Esper told ABC's This Week that he doesn't "recall" if the department had received a November assessment from the National Center for Medical Intelligence, a spying arm of the Defense Intelligence Agency, which reportedly briefed the National Security Council in December to determine the outbreak's impact to military readiness." In November? Before Wuhan had its first known patient and before anyone else in the world except CIA even knew if there was going to be an outbreak?
April 17: a large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count. Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.  “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.
“We would like to make it clear that there is to this day no factual evidence corroborating the information recently circulating in the United States press that establishes a link between the origins of COVID-19 and the work of the P4 laboratory of Wuhan, China,” an official at President Emmanuel Macron’s office said.
"Pentagon chief pours cold water on theory that coronavirus was released from a Wuhan lab, despite Trump admin investigation", guess Pompeo did not coach Esper enough to lie......
April 19 Sample tests in Chelsea outside Boston conducted by Mass Gen Hospital indicates 32% infection rate. In a statement Saturday, a spokeswoman for the FDA, Stephanie Caccomo, said, “CDC did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol.”
April 21: Two coronavirus-infected people died in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 and Feb. 17, the medical examiner revealed Tuesday, making them first documented COVID-19 fatalities in the United States, which means the virus has been in Santa Clara much longer, before January. They had no known travel history or contacts with known Covid19 patients, had been thought to be flu deaths as they did not fit the CDC criteria and never got tested until the autopsies. Now the experts believe they were community transmission. How earlier and how many before these?
At Marion Correctional Institution prison in Ohio, 73% of its inmate population has tested positive for the coronavirus. State officials announced Sunday that 1,828 inmates had become infected by the virus, in addition to 109 members of the corrections staff. The remaining 667 inmates have been quarantined to curb the spread of infection inside the prison walls, the Columbus Dispatch reported. How long does it take to have a 73% infection? Diamond Pricess was far less.
April 23: Random sample testing show 14% in New York had Covid19, with NYC 21%, Long Island 16.7% and rest of state 3.6%. Also report the infection rate on carrier USS Roosevelt was about 20%, similar to NYC but within much shorter time - 1 vs 3+ months!
April 24 research published by a multidisciplinary team led by Sylvie van der Werf, Vincent Enouf and Etienne Simon-Loriere at Institut Pasteur found the community outbreaks in France did not come from China or Italy.
Latest and expanded study by Geneticist Peter Forster from U of Cambridge found three generational strains of Covid19 A, B and C. Wuhan patients were all B at the beginning, whileas in the US almost all were oldest type A. C was found in Singapore, and was transmitted from there to Italy and Europe. Spain was also mostly A. They concluded the pandemic could not have originated from Wuhan and started in September already!
April 30: Trump's own intelligence community concluded that the coronavirus was not 'man-made or genetically modified'. Why so sure? Not able to frame Wuhan lab anymore? Or afraid the truth be known it was made in US bioweapon lab? Remember cheating, lying and stealing is their motto.
May 1: 2 out of 319 HK residents expatriated from Pakistan confirmed but asymptomatic, which means situation in Pakistan is not that bad. Pakistan is close to China but not so with U.S. If Pakistan can be under control, Trump has no one else but himself to blame for U.S out of control!
May 3: Yves Cohen, head of intensive care at the Avicenne hospital in Paris, caused a stir by telling BFM TV that tests had been repeated on samples from 24 patients admitted to the hospital for pneumonia in December and January, and that one from December 27 was positive. The patient, a 53-year-old man, had not travelled to China.  “He was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket,” he said. “He was amazed. He didn’t understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.” Cohen initially questioned whether the wife had been exposed to fish products from China, but later confirmed that she had only been exposed to fish produced in France. This means the virus was in Paris at least on December 5 or earlier.
May 4: another report says "A retrospective analysis of samples taken from 14 intensive care patients with influenza-like symptoms at the Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals in Paris found one positive COVID-19 case -- a 42-year-old French resident who had not visited China. He was hospitalised on December 27." A bit confusing on who really the patient is? May 5 came forward the "patient zero" Amirouche Hammar, a fishmonger from Algeria who has asthma and diabetes, caught the virus as he has no direct links to China. One of his children had fallen ill with an unusual pneumonia shortly before him.
May 5: a major claim few days ago, but not picked up by the major media outlets. Mayor Michael Melham of Belleville, N.J., claims that he contracted the coronavirus in November, two months before the first confirmed U.S. case in Washington State. He recounted becoming ill while in Atlantic City attending the New Jersey League of Municipalities Conference, which was from Nov 17 to 19. He returned home on Nov 21, which means he was in Atlantic City for at least 5 days, and contracted the virus there. "The antibody in my blood is older as opposed to the more recent one showing you just finished fighting it off," Melham said. Melham said he remembers driving back up the Garden State Parkway on Thursday, Nov. 21 and feeling awful, but writing it off as a mix of exhaustion and dehydration from the three-day event. Melham thought a good night's rest would be all he needed. But Friday and Saturday of that week were no better. By Sunday night, Melham was awake all night, battling chills, hallucinations and a skyrocketing temperature. "I felt as if I was an addict going through withdrawal," he recalled. "I didn't know what was happening to me. I never felt that I could be so sick." Melham's doctor assumed that it was a case of the flu and told him that he'd recover with a few days of rest. But despite eventually getting better, the experience continued to stick out in his mind. And when COVID-19 began to break out in large numbers across New Jersey, it raised a serious red flag.
COVID-19 infected as many as 171 people in Florida as long as two months before officials announced it had come to the state, a Palm Beach Post analysis of state records shows. It includes a 4-year-old Duval County girl started feeling symptoms or had her first positive test on Jan. 1, and the state did not officially record her case until April 8. Among the 171 patients were 105 women and 66 men. They ranged in age from 4 to 91. Most of the early patients hadn’t traveled: 103 reported no travel while just 52 said they had. None reported traveling to China.
May 15: Trump's brain can not hold complex thoughts, as such often unknowingly divulge the truth. Trump said, "Scientists at the NIH began developing the first vaccine candidate on January 11th."
May 23: Beth Cameron who oversaw epidemic preparedness for NSC under Obama said the absence of public guidance from CDC during the COVID-19 pandemic leaves her “frankly scared.” She also believes and that eliminating her position weakened the American response to the coronavirus when it emerged 18 months later.
Sept 10: LA study indicates the virus was spreading locally before Xmas, and Trump knew how bad it could be and even airborne before 7 Feb! Report says starting Dec 22, it unknowingly treated several dozens of Covid19 patients, plus similar reports in other part of the country, all indicate the virus has been in the US before December, whileas only Wuhan in China had it by end of Dec. 
Sept 18: "60 Minutes" interview confirmed Trump knew by Jan 28 the latest it would be like the Spanish Flu or worse. Redfield knew it was bad on Jan 1, if he did not report up he should be prosecuted.
Nov 1: more evidences indicate the virus might be related to seefood in the earliest cases in each place. Myotis vivesi, the fish-eating bat, which lives around Gulf of California needs to be studied.
Dec 1: US CDC own researchers confirmed coronavirus antibodies in bood donors before Dec 13, 2019. The CDC-led study published in December 2020 that analyzed 7,000 samples from American Red Cross blood donations suggested the virus infected some Americans as early as the middle of December 2019.
Dec 24: 19,089,719 confirmed 336,812 died. Trump Xmas gift to America.

April 29, 2021: Mexican Social Security Institute study of random blood samples taken between February and December of last year finds 1/3 Mexicans exposed to the coronavirus by end 2020. Antibodies found in 33.5% of samples from Mexican blood banks and medical laboratory tests unrelated to COVID-19. The levels varied according to regions; the highest exposure rate was in the northwest, from Baja California to Chihuahua, at 40.7%. The lowest was in western states, at 26.6%. In general, areas along the U.S. border had higher rates.
May 6: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine found actual coronavirus death count in the US by May is 905,289 vs official report 574,043.
June 15: A new analysis of blood samples from 24,079 volunteers taken early last year is the latest and largest study to suggest that the new coronavirus popped up in at least 5 states (Illinois, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) in the U.S. in December 2019 — weeks before cases were first recognized by health officials. 7 of 9 cases found were black or latino without travel histories or exposures to known cases. 
June 24: report a "mysterious illness" plaguing "hundreds" of birds across the southern and midwestern U.S., leaving them with "crusty eyes, swollen faces, and the inability to fly," reports of such afflictions began in the spring, and scientists still have no clue.
Aug 22: reporters found 6 death certificates during January 5 to February 1, 2020 from California, Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Oklahoma and Wisconsin have been quietly amended to list COVID-19 as a contributing factor, which means the virus was in the US December 2019 or earlier. 
Aug 26:  The medical certifier ruled COVID-19 as the cause on a 9 Jan 2020 death certificate in Leavenworth County, Kansas Department of Health and Environment spokesman Matt Lara confirmed.
Study by Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health published in "Nature" reveals that by December 2020, 103 million Americans (31%) infected; Miami 42%, New York City 44%, Chicago 48%, Los Angeles 52%, parts of the Midwest like Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa >60%.
Sept 4: Kansas Lovell "Cookie" Brown died on Jan 9, 2020. Her original death certificate cited "chronic obstructive lung disease."  Peaches Foster had wondered if her mother had died from COVID, was only confirmed this week when reading "COVID-19 pneumonia" on the revised death certificate, still uclear where or how Brown contracted the virus.
Sept 23: study indicates Covid19 started from Sept 2019 in many states and 26 April 2019 for Rhode Island!


2020年3月13日星期五

Curious Case of Ohio vs Wuhan

I managed to trace back how Covid-19 unfolded in Wuhan.
Day 0: source and origin unknown, until today. A RNA genome study indicates between 30 October and 29 November, location or person unknown.
Day 1: group of people (at least two) infected, both from the Seafood Market. My best estimate of the date is December 11, how they became infected and from whom or what unknown.
Day 6: symptoms developed
Day 11-16: case WH1 and WH2 got worse, high fever persisted
Day 25: 40 serious cases confirmed, which means about 200 people had already been infected but most yet to be identified
Day 27: virus identified, analytical tools and procedures subsequently developed to vigorously trace, confirm and isolate cases
Day 29: first death
Day 37: second death
Day 40: third death, tracked down and confirmed over 200 people, some were found to have no connection with the Seafood Market, human to human transmission suspected and announced publicly.
Day 42: death toll shot up to 17 with most cases from early 40 and serious secondary infections within the hospitals, as in the early days most hospital personnel except the emergency department did not wear the necessary protective gears. 550 cases confirmed, some of them surely infected in the hospital.
Day 43: whole city quarantined
.
.
Day 87: 22,368 confirmed with 2,282 death. The confimed number turned out quite accurate, my earlier rough estimate of about 10 times or 230,000 cases were too high. About a week ago, Hong Kong charted flights to take back those stranded in Wuhan, only 1 out of total 469 people confimed with Covid-19 after returning to Hong Kong whereas all were tested and quarantined for additional two weeks in Hong Kong. This means possibly additional 0.213% of people in Wuhan who were carriers but not yet identified, which gives a total of infections in Wuhan to about 46,000 people, a little more than double the confirmed number of cases, which results in a slightly less than 5% death rate in Wuhan, which is reasonable as the hospital had no idea on what it was let alone how to treat it for more than two weeks. On the other hand if draconian quarantine measure had not been implemented, the natural infection rate could have risen up to 100,000 people by March 7 in Wuhan.

Wuhan's total population is almost identical to that of Ohio (11.1 vs 11.7 million) but is 13.7 times more densely populated than Ohio (8.5 vs 116.1 kms), therefore Ohio's infection rate given the same time span should be way less than that in Wuhan. As such, if all people in Ohio were tested and the number turned out to be what Amy Acton said would be 117,000, there is no way Ohio shared the same source of Covid-19 as Wuhan, it must have started months earlier before December but most of them were either unidentified or grouped together with flu patients. It takes very special expertise like that of the x-ray specialist in Wuhan hospital to identify something unusual, and it is also more difficult to spot rare cluster diseases in Ohio as people more spread out, and doctors have a hard time to make links with congregations such as churches etc.

May 1: Marion prison has more than 80 percent of its nearly 2,500 inmates, and 175 staff on top of that, testing positive for Covid-19!
June 11: Acton resigned.
June 13: 40,848 confirmed 2,554 died, which turned out similar to Wuhan.

14 Sept 2022: Ohio Department of Health confirms that since March 2020, more than 3 million Ohioans have had COVID— that’s about a quarter of everybody in the state, which means 1/2 to 75% given low reporting & tracking, about 25% might be naturally immune.

Ohio COVID-19 current stats for Tue Sep 13 2022 
Cases: 3,096,557 
Deaths: 39,576 
Recovered: 2,985,915 
Active: 71,066 
Tests: 22,345,248 
Doses: 18,874,829

2020年3月12日星期四

Cash is King

US markets crashed, bought 7 stocks in a single day: IBM, CLX, DE, WB, BUD, AAPL and FB. Might have bought a bit earlier, Friday might be even cheaper!
Most worked out the next day. Bought more HPQ. If rise continues on Monday, may sell some to take profits.

June 14: WB and first trunch of BUD were mistakes. Others worked out well. Sold some CLX, BUD, HPQ, AAPL and FB for profits.

2020年3月8日星期日

中韓日形象風水論

清代以及之前,包含朝鮮附屬國,中國形如桑葉,而日本形如蠶蟲,能夠不斷蠶食中國。
現代中國形如雄雞,易受禽流感之類瘟疫(最近新流感可能源於蝙蝠,風水上可屬同類)。日本佔領琉球後形似一條長長的蟲(有稱似海馬),而南北韓形似匕首,直逼日本,因三八線綑綁(美國),威脅有所節制。但若果雄雞頭部(東北、俄國)出現問題,會加強匕首對日本的威脅力。雄雞的一隻腳(台灣)被牽制(美國),而釣魚島如同一痛刺扎在雞腳上,勢必殃及蟲尾(沖繩),反而對美國影響不大,因為太遠,美國是專程跑到別家門口鬧事的。

Black Swan 黑天鵝

It is clear Covid-19 has become a real black swan, that almost no one predicted. Its full impact is yet to manifest, pending on whether USA and Europe can contain its spread.

Another black swan brewing is oil price. Russia intends to kill USA shale gas by reducing oil price, Saudi is more than happy to do so as well. Though normally a stooge to the USA, with recent prince arrests for alledged coup d'etat, how Saudi may act going forward is anybody's guess. How the triad Russia, USA and Saudi will interplay is critical in the next few months.
On April 20, crude oil price plunged to negative -$39.44. The oil black swan finally realized itself in a way never witnessed in the history of oil.

March 19: there is a saying in the West (or just UK), trouble comes in three, Chinese saying "trouble does not come alone". Have been thinking when the third proverbial "shoe" is going to drop. It looks that the intensified rivalry between China and US might be the third black swan brewing.
April 30 Trump threatened China with tariffs again for causing Covid19. May 1 market fell. Let's see if Trump knows anything other than tariffs and whether he will go through with it this time.
May 23: China Congress to pass HK security law, US to sell advanced torpedoes to Taiwan, sanction further Huawei, threaten to delist Chinese firms in US...... the third shoe about to drop......
May 28: China passed HK security law
May 29: Trump to terminate HK special status and sanction

June 2: George Floyd tragedy is a 4th black swan. How will it end is still playing out.

Coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 Covid-19 新肺炎

Monkey does what monkey sees. When a monkey learns from another monkey, you get monkey results.
Trump stupidity trump Trump virus trump Trump politics.
When a monkey leads, you should expect nothing but a monkey show.
True leader turns a crisis to opportunity whileas false leader makes an opportunity into crisis.
SARS-Cov-2 is equal opportunity, treats everyone the same, and does not discriminate against anybody.
SARS-Cov-2 will go down your throat to happily enjoy your lungs as long as you breathe, have open mouth or eyes.
Covid-19 does not care what you call its name, where you come from, or what food you eat.
Covid-19 does not mind whether you are foreign or domestic, wealtuhy or poor, famous or not, old or young, gay or straight, black, white, brown, yellow or green, the most powerful president of the most powerful country or a homeless dying off the street ......
Covid-19 is a gift from nature to the humanity, a call for preparedness and resiliency. Are you ready for the next BIG ONE? This was a warning, which provided precious time to prepare for the worst to come.
Crisis defines a nation. How to respond defines true leadership.
What is it with Tom Cotton? How did he get into Harvard? Either Harvard made a mistake or he is out-of-this-world sinister!
Covid-19 exposes the weakest link in a country: China wild life markets and hospitals, Korea churches and call centers, USA CDC and healthcare system, Italy old age population and hospitals ...... all cruises and airplanes......
Covid-19 has been mostly confined to clusters or regions in most places except in the USA. China was confined mostly to Wuhan and its neighboring regions in Hubei province, it did not spread out as much outside, the numbers turned out quite accurate, which I doubted initially too, as more facts came in and you looked at Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan,  which were very open and transparent, very few cases were related directly to Wuhan, and most cases, especially in last few weeks, were all imported from regions outside of China. The infection is all over the places in the USA, unless you track and test rigorously, the truth may never be known, but obviously USA must have had multiple sources of Covid-19 which has been there for a long time. There have been a lot of posts online by people who were sick or told by doctors they had pneumonia now think they might have had Covid-19 in November.
Trump is all offense with zero defense, this is even after a pandemic drill was conducted last year, long before anyone even heard of Covid-19. The world needs another Snowden, what have not the CIA and NSC told us what they knew and planned?
"America First" becomes "America Alone": Trump tried to buy exclusive right to a vaccine from a German firm, did not try to help any country even Europe during the pandemic, continued to attack other countries when USA needed outside help the most.
March 22: video "Trump on China: 'I just wish they could have told us earlier'" posted GMT+8 time 4:05am and by 11:45am 3801 comments. I read through every comment, probably until number 1000 before I stopped as I did not see a single comment ;supporting Trump, quite unusual, even the most ardent MAGA fans or Russian bots or anti-communist/anti-China fervents disappeared! North Korea reported Trump just sent another love letter to Kim after NK fired more missiles.
Trump now says "he is little upset with China." Who gives?
March 23: have not seen any "a little upset tiny Trump" meme yet, netters a bit slow during the outbreak? Or "a not so stormy little upset weenie" better? Trump will never be a MAN he always pretends to be, a real man will own up to his mistake, let alone such a glossal one, one that can not be more clear and visible for the whole world to see. Blame, deflect and distract is all he knows and does, habits only of tiny weenie little man. A soap opera has gone bad for too long, but has real consequences for the American people, especially those without means and those who get by from paycheck to paycheck.

Curious Stats2: according to CDC, only 3 out of about 200 evacuated from Wuhan whereas 46 of about 300 from Diamond Princess were confirmed with Covid-19; very few domestic cases (no precise number unfortunately, probably less than your fingers) are related to Wuhan. Politicizing it did not help but actually made the situation worse as believers believed they would not be affected...... until too late.
Curious Stats 1: last year Hong Kong flu season ran into April with 256 deaths recorded, this year it ended before mid February with only 113 deaths. This year's flu season coincided with Covid-19, which resulted in 4 deaths so far, so it appears measures such active monitoring, screening, testing, quarantining (both enforced and voluntary), washing hands properly and frequently, wearing masks, and practicing social distancing, not only helped contain Covid-19 but also the flu. After all, they belong to the same family of viruses and infect in the same way. In the USA, the season continues with estimated deaths more than 22,000 so far.

April 30, 2021: another Japanese cruise Asuka II with over 700 people infected again.
Dec 18: 17,876,777 confirmed 320,730 died. Over 10k died in 3 days, a Trump milestone.
Dec 15: 17,118,902 confirmed 310,649 died.
Dec 6: 15,152,536 confirmed 288,886 died.
Dec 3: 14,530,354 confirmed 282,741 died.
Dec 1: 14,103,637 confirmed 276,922 dead.
Nov 26: 13,247,572 confirmed 269,552 died.
Nov 24: 12,953,914 confirmed 265,886 died. Record daily 173,954 and 2,182.
Nov 19: 12,057,786 confirmed 258,243 dead.
Nov 13: 11,059,827 confirmed 249,948 dead. 179,291 and 1,368 daily.
Nov 10: 10,577,047 confirmed 245,776 died. Record daily increases 133,437 and 1,322.
Nov 7: 10,172,991 confirmed 243,226 died.
Nov 6: 10,050,253 confirmed 242,164 dead. Record daily increases. 
Nov 5: 9,914,461 confirmed 240,920 dead. Record daily increases. 
Nov 4: 9,796,053 confirmed 239,802 dead.
Nov 3: 9,689,992 confirmed 238,616 dead.
Nov 2: 9,564,518 confirmed 236,962 dead.
Nov 1: 9,473,589 confirmed 236,471 dead.
Oct 31: 9,399,597 confirmed 236,057 dead.
Oct 30: 9,314,312 confirmed 235,142 dead.
Oct 29: 9,207,225 confirmed 234,114 dead.
Oct 28: 9,117,931 confirmed 233,123 dead.
Oct 27: 9,034,995 confirmed 232,025 dead.
Oct 26: 8,960,034 confirmed 231,033 dead.
Oct 25: 8,889,179 confirmed 230,510 dead.
Oct 24: 8,827,932 confirmed 230,068 dead.
Oct 23: 8,744,163 confirmed 229,274 dead. "Trump quietly closed the U.S.'s vaccine safety office last year. Researchers are scrambling to replace it."
Oct 22: 8,658,005 confirmed 228,318 dead.
Oct 21: 8,581,599 confirmed 227,347 dead.
Oct 20: 8,516,744 confirmed 226,053 dead. UK plans to infect healthy people on purpose to develop vaccines, 
Oct 19: 8,453,003 confirmed 225,205 dead.
Oct 18: 8,387,798 confirmed 224,730 dead.
Oct 17: 8,343,140 confirmed 224,283 dead.
Oct 16: 8,288,278 confirmed 223,644 dead.
Oct 15: 8,215,196 confirmed 222,711 dead. Upticks again, how many due to Trump rallies?
Oct 14: 8,148,325 confirmed 221,824 dead. Melania Admitted Baron Trump also positive!
Oct 13: 8,090,253 confirmed 220,873 dead.
Oct 12: 8,037,193 confirmed 220,010 dead.
Oct 11: 7,991,999 confirmed 219,695 dead. India catching up with 7,119,300 but probably already surpassed US as India grossly inaccurate.
Oct 10: 7,944,983 confirmed 219,282 dead. Trump continues to flunk CDC rules and spread the virus by holding public events without disclosing his virus status.
Oct 9: 7,893,511 confirmed 218,640 dead. Both numbers upticking after Trump boasted cure and recovery. 
Oct 8: 7,831,462 confirmed 217,661 dead.
Oct 7: 7,776,224 confirmed 216,784 dead.
Oct 6: 7,717,928 confirmed 215,729 dead.
Oct 5: 4,678,452 confirmed 214,994 dead. Trump returned to WH, took off mask, spoke on the balcony and inside with people closeby. 
Oct 4: 7,635,691 confirmed 214,609 dead. Trump was given oxygen, steroid and Remdesivir. Much worse than disclosed. Lied again.
Oct 3: 7,599,061 confirmed 214,263 dead.
Oct 2: 7,549,299 confirmed 213,523 dead.
Oct 1: 7,494,087 confirmed 212,650 dead. Both Trumps confirmed positive!
Sept 30: 7,445,689 confirmed 211,688 dead.
Sept 29: 7,405,865 confirmed 210,763 dead.
Sept 28: 7,361,186 confirmed 209,774 dead.
Sept 27: 7,321,343 confirmed 209,453 dead.
Sept 26: 7,287,572 confirmed 209,177 dead.
Sept 25: 7,235,935 confirmed 208,324 dead.
Sept 24: 7,185,005 confirmed 207,515 dead.
Sept 23: 7,139,036 confirmed 206,560 dead.
Sept 22: 7,097,595 confirmed 205,448 dead.
Sept 21: 7,045,860 confirmed 204,475 dead.
Sept 20: 7,001,273 confirmed 204,118 dead.
Sept 19: 6,967,403 confirmed 203,824 dead.
Sept 18: 6,923,908 confirmed 203,132 dead.
Sept 17: 6,874,046 confirmed 202,181 dead.
Sept 16: 6,828,301 confirmed 201,348 dead.
Sept 15: 6,787,619 confirmed 200,171 dead.
Sept 14: 6,748,853 confirmed 198,974 dead.
Sept 13: 6,708,458 confirmed 198,520 dead.
Sept 12: 6,676,601 confirmed 198,128 dead.
Sept 11: 6,632,971 confirmed 197,323 dead.
Sept 10: 6,586,896 confirmed 196,183 dead.
Sept 9: 6,548,398 confirmed 195,184 dead.
Sept 8: 6,513,637 confirmed 194,013 dead. AstraZeneca stopped phase 3 vaccine trials, which Trump trumpeted on Sept 1, due to severe side effects.
Sept 7: 6,485,575 confirmed 193,534 dead.
Sept 6: 6,459,419 confirmed 193,236 dead.
Sept 5: 6,431,160 confirmed 192,820 dead.
Sept 4: 6,386,533 confirmed 192,032 dead.
Sept 3: 6,335,025 confirmed 191,053 dead.
Sept 2: 6,290,313 confirmed 189,936 dead.
Sept 1: 6,257,171 confirmed 188,874 dead.
Aug 31: 6,211,051 confirmed 187,721 dead.
Aug 30: 6,173,236 confirmed 187,224 dead.
Aug 29: 6,136,915 confirmed 186,825 dead.
Aug 28: 6,093,139 confirmed 185,852 dead. "I profoundly accept" Trump said in his acceptance speech of GOP nomination. 
Aug 27: 6,046,064 confirmed 183,607 dead.
Aug 26: 5,998,702 confirmed 183,607 dead. CDC changed guidelines not test asymtomatics.
Aug 25: 5,954,808 confirmed 182,375 dead.
Aug 24: 5,914,660 confirmed 181,094 dead.
Aug 23: 5,874,123 confirmed 180,604 dead.
Aug 22: 5,840,353 confirmed 180,151 dead.
Aug 21: 5,796,394 confirmed 179,197 dead. 
Aug 20: 5,745,384 confirmed 177,354 dead.
Aug 19: 5,699,168 confirmed 176,290 dead. Manipulated Iowa data exposed. Tip of an iceberg, more to come.
Aug 18: 5,655,906 confirned 175,067 dead.
Aug 17: 5,611,135 confirmed 173,687 dead.
Aug 16: 5,566,338 confirmed 173,103 dead.
Aug 15: 5,529,789 confirmed 172,606 dead.
Aug 14: 5,475,356 confirmed 171,477 dead.
Aug 13: 5,414,381 confirmed 170,360 dead.
Aug 12: 5,360,011 confirmed 169,124 dead.
Aug 11: 5,303,974 confirmed 167,562 dead.
Aug 10: 5,249,577 confirmed 166,155 dead.
Aug 9: 5,199,411 confirmed 165,608 dead.
Aug 8: 5,150,060 confirmed 165,074 dead.
Aug 7: 5,093,756 confirmed 164,048 dead.
Aug 6: 5,028,027 confirmed 162,708 dead.
Aug 5: 4,973,155 confirmed 161,581 dead.
Aug 4: 4,918,240 confirmed 160,276 dead.
Aug 3: 4,862,174 confirmed 158,929 dead.
Aug 2: 4,813,640 confirmed 158,365 dead.
Aug 1: 4,764,588 confirmed 157,905 dead.
July 31: 4,705,889 confirmed 156,747 dead.
July 30: 4,634,505 confirmed 155,281 dead.
July 29: 4,560,511 confirmed 153,588 dead.
July 28: 4,497,834 confirmed 152,285 dead. Again gross underestimate by 10 fold.
July 27: 4,432,551 confirmed 150,425 dead.
July 26: 4,371,424 confirmed 149,843 dead.
July 25: 4,312,288 confirmed 149,340 dead.
July 24: 4,245,890 confirmed 148,411 dead.
July 23: 4,169,991 confirmed 147,333 dead.
July 22: 4,100,133 confirmed 146,142 dead.
July 21: 4,028,569 confirmed 144,953 dead. Another Trump milestone achieved.
July 20: 3,961,410 confirmed 143,826 dead. Numbers may be grossly under reported as it appears Trump admin is playing dirty with the numbers. Trump tweeted Invisible China Virus.
July 18: 3,833,716 confirmed 142,881 dead.
July 17: 3,766,605 confirmed 141,977 dead.
July 16: 3,695,025 confirmed 141,118 dead. Trump ordered hospitals not to send coronavirus data to CDC. Already under reported numbers will be more gross.
July 15: 3,611,486 confirmed 140,006 dead.
July 14: 3,545,076 confirmed 139,143 dead. Trump signed HK Act.
July 13: 3,478,582 confirmed 138,239 dead. Trump starts attacking Fauci, calling the virus ChinaPlague, ChinaVirus, and 20 different names you can call it.
July 12: 3,413,995 confirmed 137,782 dead.
July 11: 3,355,646 confirmed 137,403 dead. Trump starts wearing mask.
July 10: 3,291,295 confirmed 136,645 dead. New record daily increase in cases. Community infection broke out in HK, gov decided to test all pilots and crew upon arrival, United stopped flights to HK (fishy).
July 9: 3,219,999 confirmed 135,822 dead. Trump pushing to open schools.
July 8: 3,158,734 confirmed 134,854 dead. Record increase of cases.
July 7: 3,097,084 confirmed 133,972 dead. Trump formally withdrew from WHO.
July 6: 3,039,688 confirmed 132,950 dead.
July 5: 2,981,669 confirmed 132,565 dead. Trump claims 99% of COVID-19 Cases Are 'Totally Harmless'.
July 4: 2,935,770 confirmed 132,318 dead.
July 3: 2,890,588 confirmed 132,101 dead. Way to celebrate July 4th! Studies indicate 10 times actual cases than reported and 30% more death.
July 2: 2,837,189 confirmed 131,485 dead.
July 1: 2,777,951 confirmed 130,785 dead.
June 30: 2,727,318 confirmed 130,111 dead.
June 29: 2,681,778 confirmed 128,777 dead. Boeing stock jumped.
June 28: 2,636,550 confirmed 128,436 dead.
June 27: 2,596,537 confirmed 128,152 dead. This is after Trump stopped funding testing sites in the states. Trump is virus best friend.
June 26: 2,547,365 confirmed 127,361 dead.
June 25: 2,502,311 confirmed 126,726 dead.
June 24: 2,462,554 confirmed 124,281 dead. The jump even after Trump ordered to slow down testing!
June 23: 2,424,168 confirmed 123,473 dead.
June 22: 2,388,153 confirmed 122,610 dead.
June 21: 2,356,657 confirmed 122,247 dead.
June 20: 2,330,578 confirmed 121,980 dead. Most supporters at Tulsa rally did not wear masks while at least 6 campaign workers were confirmed with the virus so far.
June 19: 2,297,190 confirmed 121,407 dead, accounting for 26.2% world's total.
June 18: 2,262,986 confirmed 120,682 dead. Curve steepening again.
June 17: 2,234,415 confirmed 119,941 dead.
June 16: 2,208,400 confirmed 119,132 dead.
June 15: 2,182,717 confirmed 118,279 dead.
June 14: 2,162,144 confirmed 117,853 dead.
June 13: 2,142,224 confirmed 117,527 dead.
June 12: 2,115,593 confirmed 116,795 dead.
June 11: 2,089,684 confirmed 116,029 dead.
June 10: 2,066,223 confirmed 115,130 dead.
June 9: 2,045,520 confirmed 114,148 dead.
June 8: 2,026,493 confirmed 113,055 dead.
June 7: 2,007,449 confirmed 112,469 dead.
June 6: 1,988,544 confirmed 112,096 dead.
June 5: 1,965,708 confirmed 111,390 dead. New cases surged! Death toll may surge too 2 weeks later unless the old already infected.
June 4: 1,923,637 confirmed 110,171 dead.
June 3: 1,901,703 confirmed 109,140 dead. People become numb about the numbers and Goerge Floyd protests take over all the headlines.
June 2: 1,880,957 confirmed 108,058 dead.
June 1: 1,859,174 confirmed 106,923 dead.
May 31: 1,837,165 confirmed 106,190 dead. Again numbers might have been grossly under-reported.
May 30: 1,816,820 confirmed 105,557 dead.
May 29: 1,793,530 confirmed 104,542 dead. Cases moved higher per day and dead toll no longer accurate as Trump stopped CDC reporting certain numbers from care homes. Trump exited WHO.
May 28: 1,768,216 confirmed 103,329 dead.
May 27: 1,745,803 confirmed 102,107 dead.
May 26: 1,725,491 confirmed 100,573 dead. Broke another Trump target of 100k dead.
May 25: 1,706,226 confirmed 99,805 dead. #s may be low due to lack of reporting during holiday.
May 24: 1,686,442 confirmed 99,300 dead. Trump shut down travels from Brazil. Cuomo: travelers from Europe "brought the virus to New York", not China.
May 23: 1,666,828 confirmed 98,683 dead. Noticed satan 666 appeared.
May 22: 1,643,549 confirmed 97,580 dead.
May 21: 1,617,701 confirmed 96,184 dead.
May 20: 1,589,229 confirmed 94,902 dead. Data accuracy getting worse as Republican led states began to manipulate the reported data.
May 19: 1,570,583 confirmed 93,533 dead. Approaching another Trump milestone.
May 18: 1,546,128 confirmed 91,763 dead.
May 17: 1,527,486 confirmed 90,973 dead. UK is a joke. A 29 year old man was confirmed with the virus on May 14 but was asked to go home without quarantine, either self or otherwise, even allowed to fly to HK on May 16, knowingly exposing passengers in the whole airplane! 249 People were chartered back to HK from India.
May 16: 1,507,773 confirmed 90,113 dead. Various analyses by Harvard and others indicate death counts grossly under-reported by about 40-100%!
May 15: 1,481,672 confirmed 88,373 dead. New high with 30k new cases.
May 14: 1,451,689 confirmed 86,601 dead.
May 13: 1,427,204 confirmed 84,973 dead.
May 12: 1,406,807 confirmed 83,284 dead.
May 11: 1,385,834 confirmed 81,795 dead.
May 10: 1,367,638 confirmed 80,787 dead.
May 9: 1,347,309 confirmed 80,037 dead.
May 8: 1,321,122 confirmed 78,577 dead.
May 7: 1,292,262 confirmed 76,916 dead. Death count passed Trump's new target!
May 6: 1,262,693 confirmed 74,791 dead. Death count fast approaching Trump's new target.
May 5: 1,237,045 confirmed 72,242 dead. Did Trump just throw Pompeo under the bus? In an interview with New York Post, Trump clarified he did not believe the virus was leaked from Wuhan lab, and the spread from Wuhan was not intentional. Wow, Trump turns faster than anyone ever has thought!
May 4: 1,212,343 confirmed 69,723 dead. France first Covid19 was near Paris around early December, 53 year old man with no travel to China! Over 2% German population infected. "WHO says has no proof from US on 'speculative' Wuhan lab claims." Fauci repeated on Monday that the virus could not be man-made, and similarly dismissed theories the virus was naturally-occurring but had been accidentally released from a lab where it was being studied, setting off the pandemic: "that means it was in the wild to begin with. That's why I don't get what they're talking about [and] why I don't spend a lot of time going in on this circular argument." Ouch, that must hurt to those conspiracy spinners. I did not think of that, to be honest. That is what makes Fauci a scientist, intelligent person, despite the fact under Trump he does bend and display his some minor personality defects some times. All in all, he still earns my respect.
May 3: 1,187,442 confirmed 68,572 dead. Pompeo said, "enormous" and "significant" evidence that coronavirus outbreak originated from Wuhan lab. Right, why not tell what it is then?
May 2: 1,159,564 confirmed 67,396 dead.
May 1: 1,121,712 confirmed 65,315 dead.
April 30: 1,093,724 confirmed 63,801 dead. 80% Inmates in Marion prison confirmed with the Covid19!  "California had around 4,500 additional deaths so far in 2020 suggesting far more people died from COVID-19 than currently reported"
April 29: 1,057,392 confirmed 61,349 dead. Pompeo continued lying and cheating.
April 28: 1,035,454 confirmed 59,252 dead. Trump ordered meat processing plants to stay open.
April 27: 1,009,259 confirmed 56,773 dead.
April 26: 987,160 confirmed 55,413 dead.
April 25: 956,540 confirmed 54,124 dead. "Mask wearing" asteroid 1998 OR2 approaching Earth.
April 24: 923,612 confirmed 52,092 dead, accounting over 30% and 25% world totals, respectively.  Trump promised sending ventilators to Ecuador, Indonesia. What happened MAGA AF?
April 23: 880,204 confirmed 49,845 dead. It is going beyond bizarre, someone should seriously check Trump's IQ. Trump said, “supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light. And I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but we’re going to test it. And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, either through the skin or some other way.” “And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and does a tremendous number on the lungs. It would be interesting to check that. That you’re gonna have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me, so we’ll see.” Apparently he got the ideas from Bill Bryan, who has no medical background and got his position by Trump directly. Monkey does what monkey sees. When a monkey learns from another monkey, you get monkey results.
April 22: 848,717 confirmed 47,659 dead. Rick Bright fought back his demotion from BARDA.
April 21: 816,385 (823,786 by JHU) confirmed 45,174 dead. Cases doubled again in 2 weeks. Trump stops all immigration in tweets. Later report confirmed only greencards. I am not sure if he knows the difference even though he married one "professional lady on Einstein" visa.  Studies conclude "Trump drug" did not work but harm for Covid19 patients.
April 20: 792,759 confirmed 42,514 dead. Deaths more than doubled in 9 days.
April 19: 764,303 confirmed 40,548 dead. Investigations by local labs (note: not federal which has lost all credibility) show Santa Clara under reported cases more than 80 times and Chelsea's infection rate was 32%!  In a statement Saturday, a spokeswoman for the FDA, Stephanie Caccomo, said, “CDC did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol.”
April 18: 738,792 confirmed 39,014 dead.
April 17: 695,107 confirmed  36,576 dead, accounting for more than 30% of all cases and more than 20% of all deaths worldwide, AF MAGA! "(Trump) said 11 times, 'I don't want to get involved in testing – it's too hard, it's too complicated,'" Cuomo said. Sounds like Trump. Macron Office unprecedentedly put out statement that no evidence links the virus to Wuhan lab. Esper did not follow in line with Pompeo either - Esper not very competent but at least proved sane among Trump admins.
April 16: 675,640 confirmed 34,522 dead. Cases doubled and deaths more than tripled in 11 days, another AF MAGA milestone.  Lying cheating stealing CIA head Pompeo spread the conspiracy that the virus "might" have escaped from a Wuhan biolab. "Trump's 'Opening Our Country Council' Runs Into Its Own Opening Problems", stable genius at work again, everything it touches turns into a monkey show. "'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years"
April 15: 643,419 confirmed 28,504 dead. China starts phase 2 clinical trial for a vaccine. Kellyanne Conway: "This is COVID-19, not COVID-1 folks, and so you would think the people in charge of the World Health Organization, facts and figures, would be on top of that." Another "stable genius" indeed, also intriguing to know how George Conway could put up with such a bimbo day in and day out. Trump threatened to adjourn Congress and started attacking China coronavirus numbers. Clearly he is losing his mind.
April 14: 611,156 confimed 25,924 dead. Trump suspended funding to WHO, exactly when U.S. needed it the most - another work by the "stable genius".
April 13: 586,377 confirmed 23,610 dead. Trump attacks Fauci and NYT. All 50 states declared disaster, and Trump tweeted "we are winning."
April 12: 560,425 confirmed 22,108 dead
April 11: 532,879 confirmed 20,577 dead. Another AF MAGA "milestone": U.S. officially ranked #1 in Covid-19 death counts, accounting for over 20% of world total. White House attacked its own VOA for covering Wuhan lifting lockdown. "Army's Seatle field hospital closes after 3 days, without treating a single patient", another AF MAGA "milestone".
April 10: 502,049 confirmed 18,719 dead. Doubled again in about 7 days. Over 2000 new deaths within a single day, more than 2nd France and 3rd UK combined. Another AF MAGA milestone! UK is becoming the larest hotspot. NYC alone reported over 1,100 died in the streets never tested or accounted for, no name mass burials in Hart Island reached new high of about 24 coffins a day (used to be for a whole week). Should WSJ write another article titled "New York is the Real Sick Man in America" or "U.S. is the Real Sick Man in the World"?
April 9: 465,586 confirmed 16,545 dead. Bill Gates said U.S. is "in big trouble" until it has better coronavirus testing! "Nature" took the unprecedented step to publicly apologize for having associated the novel coronavirus with Wuhan or China in its early article, in an apparent rebuke to Pompeo, Trump and nutty Republican politicians. Melania went on the internet to promote wearing masks in public, another clear departure from her husband.
April 8: 430,271 confirmed 14,738 dead. About 10% aircraft carrier Roosevelt infected. Trump threatened to withdrawal from WHO, brilliant "stable genius" indeed! Research by Adriana Heguy, a geneticist at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, found out New York Covid-19 came from Europe.
April 7: 400,335 confirmed 12,841 dead. It is conveniently leaked to the media Novarro wrote memos on Jan 29 and Feb to warn Trump of the coronavirus risk. First, Jan 29 is extremely late, anyone with a sound mind already knew what the risk might be. Second, you can guess who leaked them. Navarro is a weasel. Clearly the "smart Harvard weasel" is preparing post Trump era. Interesting to see how this plays out over next months. Trump demands but never gets any loyalty from his people. He only attracts selfish crooks with zero integrity.
April 6: 367,004 confirmed 10,871 dead. Peter Navarro claimed his PhD from Harvard makes him a medical expert!
April 5: 336,830 confirmed 9,618 dead, again doubled in 6 days! "Health experts say official U.S. coronavirus death toll is understated" for reasons such as limited testing (even now it is still difficult for people to be tested in some areas), false negatives, no postmortem testing,  some flu or pneumonia deaths before mid March were likely due to coronavirus. So what is the true number? News Pentagon received a spy assessment report on the novel coronavirus in November, which was before Wuhan had its first case, which means CIA/Pentagon knew what was going to happen in Wuhan before what happened in Wuhan?
April 4: 311,357 confirmed 8,452 dead. It appears the count doubles every 6 days!
April 3: 257,379 confirmed 6558 dead. CDC finally caved in by recommending masks, though voluntarily.  Do not understand the fascination with Fauci as the truth man except he was a bit better than Trump. That bar is extremely low. As late as March 20 Fauci was quoted saying U.S will be fine, not be like Italy. He and the whole Trump Admin had been downplaying the situation until at least then. Trump just threatened 3M to "have a big price to pay" for N95. He also ordered 3M not export to Canada, its closest ally!
Two months before the coronavirus begun in Wuhan, the Trump admin ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat. The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories — including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2. Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program. The work and milestone by a real "stable genius".
Capt. Crozier's name was shouted out as a hero by his crew of thousands when he walked off the carrier to be released of his duty. Very much looking forward to hear his side of the story.
April 2: 240,344 confirmed 5,807 dead. Capt. Brett Crozier of aircraft carrier Roosevelt was fired for copying too many people in his plea for help. He did nothing wrong and did not personally leaked the memo to the media. This is a real cover-up, why no media outrage? As of today, people are still debating on TV, including Fauci, about wearing masks or not, indeed preciously incredible! Also report: US hijacked medical supplies meant for Canada and France. What allies are for? Easy stealing from each other!
April 1: 215,003 confirmed 5,102 dead. "We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point," Pence told CNN on Wednesday. Shouldn't Trump say "Italian virus"? Lying cheating stealing CIA Pompeo failed in blaming China now directs CIA to leak so called "secret" (so no names no facts but claims by already failed "intel" people) report that China under reported its coronavirus cases to Bloomberg, but Trump said he never received any such report. Trump is too honest and Pompeo failed to coach him to lie before hand. Over 1,000 dead within a single day, another MAGA AF milestone!
March 31: 187,347 confirmed 3,860 died. I try now not listen to Trump anymore, but did notice, instead of right behind, Fauci stayed far away as possible and had his arms acrossed while Trump was speaking. Read an old news article on Feb 17, in which Fauci was quoted the Covid-19 danger was minuscule and there was no need for wearing masks as the masks you buy from pharmacies don't really work. Trump threw Boris Johnson under the bus by publicly admitting Johnson admin adopted "herd immunity" strategy until March when himself caught the virus, and last week he begged Trump for ventilators!
March 30: 161,358 confirmed 2,974 died. Even though testing numbers appear to ramp up, little has been done to isolate, track, quarantine and contain the virus from spreading. No wonder Trump changed his tone.  Report: a sharp increase in coronavirus cases among troops inside the United States, which have overtaken the number of cases among forces overseas in key branches of military. Clearly the real danger resides within. Another MAGA America First milestone achieved!
March 29: 141,854 confirmed 2,475 dead. Report by The New York Times "The Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to COVID-19" confirmed the U.S. CDC had been informed with details from the very beginning possible: "The first time Redfield heard about the severity of the virus from his Chinese counterparts was around New Year’s Day, when he was on vacation with his family. He spent so much time on the phone that they barely saw him. And what he heard rattled him; in one grim conversation about the virus days later, George Gao, the director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, burst into tears." Robert Redfield is Director of U.S CDC! China CDC was not involved until December 31, before that it was local CDC from Wuhan or Hubei, which did not know what the disease was until December 30 or 31.
The Guardian "The coronavirus is the worst intelligence failure in US history" failed to ask the question what Trump did know exactly? It may not be an intelligence failure but an intelligence boomerang!
Trump said if U.S ended up with 100,000 to 200,000 deaths from Covid-19, he and his administration "we altogether have done a very good job!" He obviously began trying to manage down the expectations. Unbelievable.
March 28: 123,750 confirmed and 2,227 dead.
March 27: 104,142 confirmed 1,695 dead. US media trying to recycle old WSJ article to pin down patient zero to Wei Guixian and the blame on the government, which was quite lame as the original article (very long) clearly indicates the doctors did not have clue until Dec 29 or 30 the earliest. Wuhan's (later China) actions and missteps are now clearly reasonable as they were dealing with the unknown, but the actions by the US government since the very beginning are hard for me to understand.
March 26: 83144 confirmed 1201 dead. "Military imposes 60 day coronavirus ban on troops coming home from overseas", why 60 long days? Not by Easter? Easter not so special any more, Trump? Report U.S flu season extended and getting worse whileas HK ended earlier than usual. Track, test, contain and wear masks do work! Fauci said Italy was due to having most Chinese travellers for the situation, a complete illogical argument coming from a scientist! Clearly Fauci has also fallen into Pompeo fold. If true, Japan, other Asian countries, other regions in China close to Wuhan should have far more cases. The fact Italy is only peaking now, not one or two months earlier, indicates the source of the outbreak did not come from the Wuhan wave. From where? Fauci as the leading scientific expert in the U.S should know the answer!
March 25: 66048 confirmed 944 dead. Pompeo continued to attack in G7 and asked to label "Chinese virus", receiving zero support. It appears CIA Pompeo is behind the the conspiracy from the beginning. How much had been CIA involved in the pandemic? Did it plant the virus in the first place? This can not be 100% rooted out. He ordered his minions to do the same at UNSC but failed again. Pompeo is out to destroy China and will do anything (including his own mother and daughter) no matter what. Trump only cares about reelection. Another report, Japan Aso said in February G7 FM meeting he asked what to do with the outbreak at the time, Italian FM said no worry as it affects only yellow race, which could explain why Italy is where it is now. Trump crossed out "Chinese" from his speech note but started to attack WHO. He started calling it "invisible enemy". It is not, it can be detected as long as you screen and test! It takes only a few hours to a day, not weeks!
March 24: 53482 confirmed 696 dead. Burma reported first two cases, both imported from U.S and UK. Burma is very close to China both by land and culturally, should have had a lot more cases by now if China/Wuhan is the source. Trump called Moon to send coronavirus equipments. Trump stopped calling "Chinese virus" for now. Fauci reappeared behind Trump but kept looking at his own feet.
March 23 pm: 43718 confirmed 552 died. Trump said "coronavirus not Asian Americans' fault." A real "stable genius" indeed. He also said flu death counts are 50,000 plus and more deaths in auto accident ....
March 23: 35079 confirmed 458 died. "White House pushes U.S. officials to criticize China for coronavirus 'cover-up'".
March 22: 32783 confirmed, 416 died. Australia PM said most cases are from the US, USA now the world virus exporters letting people out without any screening. "US axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak".
March 21 pm: 26863 confirmed, 348 died. Trump suggests medical staff sanitize and reuse masks, a real "stable genius" indeed!
March 21 am: 19774 confirmed, 275 died. Trump admin asked states not to release unemployment numbers. WTF, can't he get anything right? Hope market won't crash Monday. (Market did crash again on Monday 23rd)
March 20 pm: 19285 confirmed, 250 died. Anthony Fauci facepalm, how long can he sustain this twisted psychosis with a madman? Fauci appears the only sane person now, but needs to keep toeing the line between being accurate and not offending Trump, a difficult and almost impossible task. Fauci has been missing from news briefing for at least two days on Monday 23rd!
If Trump keeps deflecting by calling "Chinese virus" and not stopping it, he will end up known as Trump virus, also Trump disease, Trump flu, Trump crash, Trump recession, Trump outbreak, Trump pandemic, Trump depression, Trump suicide, Trump murder (chloroquine), TrumpConDemic, TrumpPornDumbic, Mushroom Head virus, Mario Kart virus, CoronaMushroomHeadMarioKartStormyTrump virus......
March 20: Hong Kong 48 and Taiwan 27 confirmed today, none to do with Wuhan or China, a lot to do with travellers from USA, Europe, and SEA.
March 20 am: 14336 confirmed, 217 died
March 19 pm: 13847 confirmed, 209 died. Trump has been trying desperately to deflect and divert blames by repeatedly calling it "Chinese virus", but was caught by a smart reporter who exposed to the world with indisputable evidence Dum Trump personally crossed out the word "Corona" and wrote "Chinese" with his favorite Sharpie on his cheat sheet at the podium! Again, he is not as stupid as some believe, he is doing this on purpose to his political advantage.
March 19 am: 9521 confirmed, 160 died.
March 18 night: 9439 confirmed 155 died
March 18: 8006 confirmed, 129 died. CDC: 7038 and 97.
March 17: 6522 confirmed, 116 died. Again these are under-estimate and not CDC numbers, which have not been up to date. In essence, CDC has no clue!
March 16: 5243 confirmed with 94 deaths
March 15 night: over 3,800 people from another cruise were allowed to disembark in Miami without any kind of screening let alone quarantining even though there was confirmed case onboard!
March 15: 2952 confirmed, 57 deaths (CDC: 1629 confirmed, 41 deaths). Same time TV reported over 3000 cases and over 60 deaths. Another news reported over 3,200 confirmed and 62 deaths. Very confusing! Fed overreacted with double cutting 1% rate to 0%, and restarting QE! How will markets react when open on Monday?
March 14: 2836 tested and confirmed, 57 death. Trump's doctor claimed Trump was tested the night before, and in less than 24 hours the result came back negative, yet the same doctor who said just hours before there was no need for asymptomatic Trump to be tested.
March 14: Covid-19 RNA genome comparison study of limited cases indicates Case 0 may be between 30 October and 29 November. 16 November 2015 "Lab-made coronavirus triggers debate" wrote UNC at Chapel Hill Prof R. Baric published on 9 November 2015 a study to engineer a hybrid coronavirus with surface protein of SHC014 coronavirus found in horseshoe bats in China, and the backbone that causes human-like SARS in mice. 15 February 2020 "Biologists rush to recreate the China coronavirus from its DNA code" also by Baric team (not sure if it was a mistake - shouldn't it be RNA?). Apparently it is not that easy to engineer a successful coronavirus in a lab even for the leading US scientists. Conspiracy promoters appear to shoot their own feet by admitting Chinese scientists are superior to their US counterparts. How ironic? That is the danger of not understanding science but yet trying to manipulate it.
March 13: Trump declared national emergency. 2174 tested and confirmed with 47 deaths.   Read original interview with Ai Fen in Chinese as the translated English versions were too biased toward making her an anti-government heroin, which could not be further from the truth. She was the person who sent x-ray scan picture to a classmate outside the hospital that started the viral social media panic. She, as the head of emergency department, was blamed by her colleagues of spreading the actual virus in the hospital by not containing it within her department. Plus over the following weeks and months, she was constantly under stress due to intense workload. It is fully understandable for her to air some frustrations as well as exonerate herself from her colleagues. In the end, we are all human. Unfortunately those who are anti-China and anti-communists would always have a different take on everything.  The first known patient WH1 first sought help in the clinic on 16 December and was referred to the Respiratory Specialist Department on 22 December as high fever did not recede after 6 days. WH2 was received on 27 December after being quite sick for over ten days. Both had connection to the nearby Seafood Market, which made the doctors believe it is related to the Market. It is therefore reasonably assumed both were infected around 11 December. On 30 December a x-ray specialist recognized unusual lung scan, noted down SARS like virus, and reported duly upward. On the same day, Dr. Ai Fen, head of the emergency department of the hospital saw and sent the picture with highlighted "SARS" related words to her old classmate, a doctor from another hospital who happened to ask her if she knew anything about the Seafood Market cases. The classmate then socialmediaed to other people, amongst them was Li Wenliang, who was an eye doctor from the same hospital as Ai Fen but they did not know each other personally as it is a big hospital. It quickly became viral and caused commotion in the communities. Police was noticed and enquired Dr. Li but did not punish any of them as no bad intention was found. City Health Bureau allegedly inquired the hospital chief who in turn told Ai not to send sensitive materials outside the hospital without consultation with her superiors. On 31 December China alerted WHO about unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan. On 1 January the Seafood Market was closed. As scientists tried to identify the source, cases mushroomed to over 40 within a few days. On 5 January SARS was ruled out. On 7 January the virus was identified and notified to WHO and the world. On 9 January first death occurred which was announced publicly on 11 January. On 17 January second death, USA announced airport screenings. On 20 January third death with over 200 confirmed cases and a national expert panel confirmed human to human transmission possible. January 22 saw more deaths and 550 cases resulting in the decision to quarantine the whole city on January 23. The rest and ongoing events afterwards have been well publicized.
By March 8 CDC only performed 1707 tests, and by 11 March, 1784, mere 77 more tests in 3 days! State tested about 7617 for a total tested by 11 March 9401 people, with confirmed 1663 cases resulting in 17.7% confirmed rate.
March 12: John Hopkins count 1663 confirmed with 40 death. How many deaths unaccounted for? Noone knows. Conservative estimate 400 Covid-19 related deaths would put infection at least 40,000. Given the expanse of the land and sparsity of population relative to China, Korea or even Italy, it means the coronavirus must have been in the community much longer than that in China! Ohio State Health Chief Amy Acton said "at least of 1%" in Ohio had been infected, which means more than 117,000 Covid-19 infections in Ohio alone, and yet it is not even the epicenter! Multiply that by 40 (or 10 to be generous), it is 4,680,000 (or more than 1 million the least) for the country! You think Trump and CIA Pompeo did not know this? This is way beyond USA healthcare capacity, that is probably one of the reasons Trump had been downplaying the situation and hope it would hide behind Flu until April/May. A point about bioweapon conspiracy. Covid-19 works best among crowded places and inflicts the worst on older and sick people, especially those with weak lungs, both factors favor the US better than China. Chinese scientists must have been really stupid to develop such a virus which will exert heavier loss on its own people. The timing is also against its own interests - China's economy had been under stress due to Trump's trade war, who in their right minds in China would want to push it farther to the edge? CIA (maybe KGB) has both motive and capability to carry this out secretly, but never expected the boomerang so quick and severe, due to what? Incompetent leadership in Washington and failed CDC! Noone is more clear about the whole thing than Pompeo. How much did he tell Trump? Pompeo/Trump must have known about the virus before November/December, that explains why Trump was first to restrict travels to China, first to extract its citizens from China, and Pompeo cohorts continue up to this hour desperately trying to pin the blame on China, just like the "Spanish Flu". At this point scientificly speaking, it is only accurate to say Covid-19 was first detected in Wuhan, China, its origin yet to be determined. Only after each country fully tests enough samples of its population (like China and Korea had done so far, the only two countries) and more generational virus RNA mappings are done, it can determine, within degree of confidence, the true original source of Covid-19.
March 11: over 1300 confirmed with 38 died, still way way under-testing.
March 10: in less than two days, death number in the USA jumped to 31 and infected to over 1000!  More States are taking control of the testing over CDC. Egypt and India appear to be the new hot spots: several cases confirmed after trips to India and an Egypt tour group of 9 all confirmed upon return to Hong Kong! It is worth pointing out that just a few days/weeks ago, Indians here in Kong Kong had been bragging about no Indian cases and how curry food cures the virus?   "A Seatle Lab uncovered Washington's coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulations" pointed out a couple of weeks before 25 Feb it requested CDC testing, which means the patient WA2 was seriously sick before 10 Feb. As WA2 is a high school teenager, most likely first thought having a flu and had been sick for at least over a week before seeing a doctor. Unless with chronic illness, a healthy teenager is known not to have any symptom even for 21 to 37 days after infection, which means WA2 could have had the virus mid December to early January. It is reported that WA2 shares similar makeup as WA1 but the two had no contact and WA2 did not travel. WA1 arrived in Seatle on January 15 and was confirmed on January 19/20. It is possible both contracted the virus locally in Seatle. More study/information on all known patients is needed to trace the source of the virus. It is very strange that CDC insisted no other lab but itself to conduct the tests. USA was first to impose travel restrictions before almost any other country, at which point Trump seemed to know more about the danger of the virus, what briefing did he get from CIA? Ex-CIA head Pompeo until today still keeps calling/blaming Wuhan/China for it, whereas Trump, uncharacteristically, refrained from doing so. Trump is a simple guy who can not hold secrets too long, but he is not as stupid as some believe.

There have been all kinds of views and opinions, some outright outrageous. Diamond Princess (DP) offers a "controlled" (sad unfortunately) experiment, in which the virus was more or less allowed to run its course, the infected rate is 19% of this close cluster population. Given that its population might tend to be more elderly and more sick than the free general population, the death rate about 1% should be higher than that of those infected in a free general population. In Wuhan the confirmed rate is about 0.2%, and death rate about 10%. How so? The numbers are most likely inaccurate as the virus was not known in the early weeks, a lot of self-recovered mild cases had not been detected and a percent of milder cases later remained at home after the quarantine. In my view, Wuhan at the outset might be similar to DP but difference is hospitals were the hot spots as early doctors were not aware and did not take necessary protective measures. As such the true infection rate at Wuhan hospitals early on should be around 20%, similar or higher than DP, but when spreading out into the wider communities, the rate should become much lower. Assuming 1% death rate is correct, that would give a total about 230,000 infected persons, ten times bigger. If these additional 200,000 were added to Hubei or China numbers, the death rate for both would also reduce to 1% or lower. Given the mild and difficult to detect nature for majority of those infected, 1% death rate is a more accurate benchmark to judge the stage and condition of a region under infection.
This shows Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, China Mainland (after measure taken) have much better medical system and people awareness to tackle the virus whereas Italy, Iran, Japan and Korea continue to unfold. Korea took good and aggressive measures to test and quarantine so the reported death rate is very low, we need to wait for the final number to come as it is still early to judge, but credit should be given to the Korean government.
On the other hand, 4.3% death rate from the USA is partially due to the fact that most of those were from the high risk elderly home centers but clearly it was mostly due to under-reporting and under-testing as it appears CDC was ill-prepared with limited and faulty test kits to date, and the general attitude that it was kind of like a flu and would go away in April is not helping either.
As said earlier, "hot spot" cluster infection rate is about 20%, but extreme cases like recent Egypt Cruise in which 45 out of 150 were infected, and the Hong Kong hot pot gathering in which about 11 out of 19 were infected, could be, unfortunately, over 50%! However, with appropriate measures and increased awareness, as shown in some regions already, the infection rate should be way below 1% and death rate below 1% too, similar to flu. Therefore 1% infection can be a yard stick whether a region is out of control. Though Hong Kong's death rate appears high, its infection rate is extremely low, which shows its measures are working.
It is reported that flu cases and deaths were pretty high this season in the US, vaping and unknown lung related death cases occurred in the US as early as last summer. How many cases, including death, were actually Covid-19? It is a mystery. It may have originated from the US before last December, but we may never know. Nature does have a way to run as it wishes. Trump's ignorance and downplaying significance of the virus may come back to haunt him, this we will find out in a few months.

Region                           Pop          Death (%)        Infected (%) 
Diamond Princess      ~3700       7 (1)                  706 (19)
Grand Princess            3533         1 so far            3+21 so far (19 crew)
Wuhan                          11.08m     2282 (10)        22368 (0.2)
Hubei                             58.5m       2871 (11)        25905 (0.044)
China                             1386m      3097 (3.8)       80696
Macau                            650k         0                      10
Hong Kong                    7.4m         2                      113
Taiwan                           23m          1                      45
Singapore                      5.6m         0                      138
Japan                              126.8m     6 (1.3)             461
Korea                              51.47m     50                   7134
Iran                                 81.16m     145 (2.5)        5823
Italy                                60.48m      233 (4)           5883
USA                                 327.2m      19 (4.3)          442
Egypt Cruise                  150             ND                 45 (30)
HK hot pot                      ~19            ND                  ~11 (over 50)
HK WH Evacuee            469            ND                  1 so far