Day 0: source and origin unknown, until today. A RNA genome study indicates between 30 October and 29 November, location or person unknown.
Day 1: group of people (at least two) infected, both from the Seafood Market. My best estimate of the date is December 11, how they became infected and from whom or what unknown.
Day 6: symptoms developed
Day 11-16: case WH1 and WH2 got worse, high fever persisted
Day 25: 40 serious cases confirmed, which means about 200 people had already been infected but most yet to be identified
Day 27: virus identified, analytical tools and procedures subsequently developed to vigorously trace, confirm and isolate cases
Day 29: first death
Day 37: second death
Day 40: third death, tracked down and confirmed over 200 people, some were found to have no connection with the Seafood Market, human to human transmission suspected and announced publicly.
Day 42: death toll shot up to 17 with most cases from early 40 and serious secondary infections within the hospitals, as in the early days most hospital personnel except the emergency department did not wear the necessary protective gears. 550 cases confirmed, some of them surely infected in the hospital.
Day 43: whole city quarantined
.
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Day 87: 22,368 confirmed with 2,282 death. The confimed number turned out quite accurate, my earlier rough estimate of about 10 times or 230,000 cases were too high. About a week ago, Hong Kong charted flights to take back those stranded in Wuhan, only 1 out of total 469 people confimed with Covid-19 after returning to Hong Kong whereas all were tested and quarantined for additional two weeks in Hong Kong. This means possibly additional 0.213% of people in Wuhan who were carriers but not yet identified, which gives a total of infections in Wuhan to about 46,000 people, a little more than double the confirmed number of cases, which results in a slightly less than 5% death rate in Wuhan, which is reasonable as the hospital had no idea on what it was let alone how to treat it for more than two weeks. On the other hand if draconian quarantine measure had not been implemented, the natural infection rate could have risen up to 100,000 people by March 7 in Wuhan.
Wuhan's total population is almost identical to that of Ohio (11.1 vs 11.7 million) but is 13.7 times more densely populated than Ohio (8.5 vs 116.1 kms), therefore Ohio's infection rate given the same time span should be way less than that in Wuhan. As such, if all people in Ohio were tested and the number turned out to be what Amy Acton said would be 117,000, there is no way Ohio shared the same source of Covid-19 as Wuhan, it must have started months earlier before December but most of them were either unidentified or grouped together with flu patients. It takes very special expertise like that of the x-ray specialist in Wuhan hospital to identify something unusual, and it is also more difficult to spot rare cluster diseases in Ohio as people more spread out, and doctors have a hard time to make links with congregations such as churches etc.
May 1: Marion prison has more than 80 percent of its nearly 2,500 inmates, and 175 staff on top of that, testing positive for Covid-19!
June 11: Acton resigned.
June 13: 40,848 confirmed 2,554 died, which turned out similar to Wuhan.
14 Sept 2022: Ohio Department of Health confirms that since March 2020, more than 3 million Ohioans have had COVID— that’s about a quarter of everybody in the state, which means 1/2 to 75% given low reporting & tracking, about 25% might be naturally immune.
Ohio COVID-19 current stats for Tue Sep 13 2022
Cases: 3,096,557
Deaths: 39,576
Recovered: 2,985,915
Active: 71,066
Tests: 22,345,248
Doses: 18,874,829
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