It is clear Covid-19 has become a real black swan, that almost no one predicted. Its full impact is yet to manifest, pending on whether USA and Europe can contain its spread.
Another black swan brewing is oil price. Russia intends to kill USA shale gas by reducing oil price, Saudi is more than happy to do so as well. Though normally a stooge to the USA, with recent prince arrests for alledged coup d'etat, how Saudi may act going forward is anybody's guess. How the triad Russia, USA and Saudi will interplay is critical in the next few months.
On April 20, crude oil price plunged to negative -$39.44. The oil black swan finally realized itself in a way never witnessed in the history of oil.
March 19: there is a saying in the West (or just UK), trouble comes in three, Chinese saying "trouble does not come alone". Have been thinking when the third proverbial "shoe" is going to drop. It looks that the intensified rivalry between China and US might be the third black swan brewing.
April 30 Trump threatened China with tariffs again for causing Covid19. May 1 market fell. Let's see if Trump knows anything other than tariffs and whether he will go through with it this time.
May 23: China Congress to pass HK security law, US to sell advanced torpedoes to Taiwan, sanction further Huawei, threaten to delist Chinese firms in US...... the third shoe about to drop......
May 28: China passed HK security law
May 29: Trump to terminate HK special status and sanction
June 2: George Floyd tragedy is a 4th black swan. How will it end is still playing out.
沒有留言:
發佈留言