Interesting Case of Germany vs Hubei

By March 28, Germany has 53,340 confirmed cases. The number is as accurate as possible as Germany has been testing early and as many as needed. Even though Germany enforced stricter measures such as number of people gathering late March, it did not quarantine or lock down a whole city or region, but did take similar strict medical and social measures like those in Hubei province, thus offering another interesting benchmark. Germany has 82.8 million people, 24.3 million or 41% more than Hubei province, yet its infection number is comparable with Hubei's by March 7, which indicates Germany's pandemic (and Europe) is about 1 month later on the Covid-19 curve. Without strict quarantine and true lockdown, the numbers may continue to rise for the next 2 to 4 weeks, but Germany should be able to cope better than any other country given its logical culture, robust healthcare and so much is known about the virus already.
As a comparison, U.S has four times of Germany's population, discounting its vast land but counting more the fact U.S counter-virus measures much worse than those in Germany, it can be roughly estimated at least over 250,000 people should have been infected in the U.S by now.

Tracking case numbers in Germany:
April 5: 100,123 confirmed with 1,584 dead
April 6: 103,375 confirmed with 1,810 dead. Exceeded Hubei proportionwise, difference was lockdown. Also means it was in Germany before January.
April 7: 107,663 confirmed 2,016 dead. Doubled in about 10 days.
April 8: 113,296 confirmed 2,349 dead
April 9: 118,181 confirmed 2,607 dead
April 10: 122,171 confirmed 2,767 dead
April 11: 125,452 confirmed 2,871 dead
April 12: 127,854 confirmed 3,022 dead
April 13: 130,072 confirmed 3,194 dead
April 14: 131,359 confirmed 3,294 dead
April 15: 134,753 confirmed 3,804 dead
April 16: 137,698 confirmed 4,052 dead
April 17: 139,134 confirmed 4,203 dead
April 18: 143,724 confirmed 4,538 dead
April 19: 145,742 confirmed 4,642 dead
April 20: 147,065 confirmed 4,862 dead
April 21: 148,291 confirmed 5,033 dead
April 22: 150,648 confirmed 5,315 dead
April 23: 153,129 confirmed 5,575 dead
April 24: 154,999 confirmed 5,760 dead
April 25: 156,418 confirmed 5,873 dead
April 26: 157,770 confirmed 5,976 dead
April 27: 158,434 confirmed 6,061 dead
April 28: 159,912 confirmed 6,314 dead
April 29: 161,197 confirmed 6,405 dead
April 30: 163,009 confirmed 6,623 dead
May 1: 163,855 confirmed 6,670 dead
May 2: 164,967 confirmed 6,812 dead
May 3: 165,664 confirmed 6,866 dead
May 4: 166,152 confirmed 6,993 dead. Study shows 1.8 million or more than 10 times of people infected.
May 5: 167,007 confirmed 6,993 dead. Appears to have turned the corner.
May 6: 168,162 confirmed 7,275 dead.
May 7: 169,430 confirmed 7,392 dead.
May 8: 170,588 confirmed 7,510 dead.
May 9: 171,324 confirmed 7,549 dead.
May 10: 171,879 confirmed 7,569 dead.
May 11: 172,576 confirmed 7,661 dead.
May 12: 173,171 confirmed 7,738 dead.
May 13: 174,098 confirmed 7,859 dead.
May 14: 174,975 confirmed 7,928 dead.
May 15: 175,678 confirmed 7,999 dead.
May 16: 176,244 confirmed 8,027 dead. Germany's relative success due to 1) test early, in March between 120,000 and 500,000 people each week; 2) prepared, with spending more on healthcare per capita than most other countries, and having the second-most critical-care beds per capita in Europe; 3) lockdown early on March 22; 4) luck, average age infected with was 46.
May 17: 176,651 confirmed 8,049 dead.
May 18, 177,289 confirmed 8,123 dead.
May 19: 177,827 confirmed 8,193 dead. Looks like the end of the tunnel
May 20: 178,494 confirmed 8,265 dead.
May 21: 179,021 confirmed 8,309 dead.
May 22: 179,713 confirmed 8,352 dead.
May 23: 179,986 confirmed 8,366 dead.
May 24: 180,328 confirmed 8,371 dead.
May 25: 180,789 confirmed 8,428 dead.
May 26: 181,288 confirmed 8,498 dead.
May 27: 181,895 confirmed 8,533 dead.
May 28: 182,452 confirmed 8,570 dead.
May 29: 183,019 confirmed 8,594 dead.
May 30: 183,294 confirmed 8,600 dead.
May 31: 183,494 confirmed 8,605 dead. Good numbers shaping up.
June 1: 183,765 confirmed 8,618 dead.
June 2: 184,091 confirmed 8,674 dead.
June 3: 184,425 confirmed 8,699 dead.
June 4: 184,923 confirmed 8,736 dead.
June 5: 185,414 confirmed 8,763 dead.
June 6: 185,696 confirmed 8,769 dead. Clearly improving.
June 7: 185,869 confirmed 8,776 dead. all lives matter. congratulations to the government and people for doing a good job containing the virus!
June 8: 186,205 confirmed 8,783 dead.
June 9: 186,516 confirmed 8,831 dead.
June 10: 186,886 confirmed 8,844 dead.
June 11: 187,059 confirmed 8,851 dead.
June 12: 187,251 confirmed 8,863 dead.
June 13: 187,423 confirmed 8,867 dead.
June 14: 187,671 confirmed 8,870 dead.
June 15: 188,044 confirmed 8,885 dead.
June 16: 188,382 confirmed 8,910 dead.
June 17: 190,179 confirmed 8,927 dead.
June 18: 190,120 confirmed 8,946 dead.
June 19: 190,660 confirmed 8,960 dead.
June 20: 191,216 confirmed 8,961 dead. Germany looking good.
June 21: 191,575 confirmed 8,962 dead.
June 22: 192,119 confirmed 8,969 dead. Seems reversing...
June 23: 192,778 confirmed 8,986 dead.
June 24: 193,254 confirmed 9,003 dead.
June 25: 193,785 confirmed 9,012 dead.
June 26: 194,399 confirmed 9,026 dead.
June 27: 194,689 confirmed 9,026 dead. Good but US poses a major threat now.
June 28: 194,864 confirmed 9,029 dead.
June 29: 195,392 confirmed 9,041 dead.
June 30: 195,832 confirmed 9,052 dead.
July 1: 196,324 confirmed 9,061 dead.
July 2: 196,717 confirmed 9,064 dead.
July 3: 197,000 confirmed 9,073 dead.
July 4: 197,418 confirmed 9,081 dead.
July 5: 197,558 confirmed 9,086 dead.
July 6: 198,057 confirmed 9,092 dead.
July 7: 198,355 confirmed 9,103 dead.
July 8: 198,765 confirmed 9,115 dead.
July 9: 199,198 confirmed 9,125 dead.
July 10: 199,588 confirmed 9,130 dead.
July 11: 199,812 confirmed 9,134 dead.
July 12: 199,950 confirmed 9,134 dead. Zero deadth!
July 13: 200,436 confirmed 9,139 dead.
July 14: 200,766 confirmed 9,144 dead.
July 15: 201,252 confirmed 9,148 dead.
July 16: 201,836 confirmed 9,157 dead.
July 17: 202,345 confirmed 9,160 dead.