2020年3月28日星期六

Curious Case of New York vs Wuhan

It is widely believed that U.S has been vastly under-testing and under-reporting it's TRUE Covid-19 situation, and now the states are simply catching up with testing. As such, the surge in reported infected patients is just the tip of an iceberg. Most experts believe the true number should be around 5-10 times bigger.
As of March 28, New York state has 53,455 confirmed cases with 883 deaths whereas New Yor City has over 30,000 cases (precise number unknown) with 672 deaths, which means over 260,000 in New York state and over 150,000 in NYC have had Covid-19. In Wuhan, the reported confirmed cases reached 22,368 and Hubei province 25,905 by March 7. The lockdown started around January 23, theses numbers truly reflect the situations before quarantine measures were taken, therefore offer sensible comparison with the numbers from New York. To make the comparison more meaningful, the real infection number in Wuhan was about 46,000 (obtained by % of those HK residents evacuated from Wuhan but later confirmed, i.e. % missed out due to quarantine) and Hubei about 52,000. The epicenter remained in Wuhan and did not spread to other regions as fast as what is happening in the U.S. Wuhan has a population of 11 million whereas NYC only 8.6 million, but NYC has 4 times more infections than Wuhan, is it because New Yorkers more prone to the virus or has the virus been in NYC much much longer?
Same can be said about New York state and Hubei province. New York state has 19.5 million people while Hubei 58.5 million, but New York state has 5 times more cases than Hubei, which shows not only has the virus been around for much much longer in New York but also has spread much much faster and wider!

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