2020年3月27日星期五

Understanding Coronavirus

The information involving coronavirus is still evolving and quite confusing at the moment. Understanding what it is and how it came about is fundamentally important for everyone. No matter what, this is an opportunity for Chinese government to crack down wild life sales throughout China, which just pasted a law to do so, but I hope the enforcement will be strong and continue into the future. It is wrong, however to link it to a whole Chinese culture, as the majority in China do not, only a handful people mostly in south China still have the fancy of eating the exotics. But if it is a creation or leak from a lab, whether Wuhan or Fort Detrick, there should be an investigation and put a stop to it forever.

First, coronavirus is an ancient RNA based virus, as natural as the nature gets, and older than life, all lives, let alone humans, as we know. They find their lasting hosts, mostly in bats, ephemeral and seasonal, cause little harm to the bats. For those village people who live near bat caves, already exposed to the virus over time, they too like bats have developed antibodies and learned to live with the virus. However, once in a while, it finds another intermediary host, through a bat, in mammals, before jumping into humans causing an epidemic or pandemic.
Bat born coronavirus is the cause of the four types of the most common colds, which target mainly noses and throats, which we humans have found peace and been coping with it with relative ease, for who knows how long. The more severe lung targeting coronavirus only caught the world attention since 2003, mainly because science and technology had developed to such an extent we understand virus at more detailed molecular level. Actually, there have been a total of 6 severe bat borne coronavirus outbreaks, namely:
1976 Africa Ebola virus: intermediary host unclear, 2014 outbreak got world attention but first detected in 1976
1994 Australia Hendra virus: through horse to human
1998 Malaysia Nipah virus: through pig
2003 Guangzhou/HK SARS virus: through civet cat
2012 Jordan MERS virus: through camel
2019 Wuhan SARS-Cov-2: intermediary unknown
It appears, the more severe coronaviruses have began crossing the line and migrating from the South hemisphere to the North, anything to do with global warming?

Also little reported in other animals are 1950s US Delaware chicken bronchitis virus and 2016 Guangdong Qingyuan Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome (SADS), in which the virus has 98% genetic similarity as bat borne coronavirus (this also shows it is highly plausible the "Wuhan Five" US athletes might have had an earlier strain of the virus which mainly caused diarrhea just like in the pigs).

Coronavirus is a simple mechanism consists of a backbone encased in a protein membrane (often called Spike Protein). There are three key elements: backbone RNA that causes the actual infection by ordering the host cell to reproduce the virus and henceforth triggering lethal immune response that causes damage or even death to its human host; Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) that looks like a mushroom head (no reference to Trump here) that fits into Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE 2) in human cell; and a Cleavage Site (CS) that cuts and fuses the backbone into the human cell. RBD is the probability of infection, the tighter the binding, the more likely to invade a host cell. CS is the success rate of infection. The problem with SARS-Cov-2 is that both RBD and CS are almost perfect, therefore highly infectious once entered into a human body.

The backbone appears to mutate quite slowly relative to the common cold viruses. The key question now is: was the perfect fit of the spike protein developed before or after it entered the human host?
Some researchers suggested a single introduction caused the pandemic, which suggests the former case and supports the suspicion Fort Detrick Maatje Banassi as Patient Zero. After all, CDC report showed Fort Detrick did experiment by introducing deadly pathogenic agents into primates. Fort Detrick needs to come clean on what exactly it did. If the snudgey fit was developed after it entered the human hosts, the virus must had been with us for a long time, at least weeks or months before December, and Wuhan can not be the origin of the first introduction. In this scenario, retro investigation into past severe pneumonia cases, including both vaping and flu related, especially in the US before December last year, is critical. The fact the five US military athletes were all sick with diarrhea in Wuhan in October indicates they might have been carrying an earlier strain of the coronavirus which is similar to SADS in swine.  The hospital where they were treated (or less likely other places they visited) in Wuhan is then the most likely place for Patient Zero of Covid-19, a super host patient with weak immune system incubated the mutation of the more contagious "mushroom head" of the Spike Protein (again no reference to Trump here but he does reign supreme as the "corona" head of the most powerful nation ever on earth).  Hope further studies will find the correct answer.

March 28: by analyzing and comparing the numbers between Wuhan, Hubei, Germany and U.S, it is found Germany (and Europe) is about one month late but U.S is much earlier, i.e. U.S is either earlier than Wuhan or shares the same source of Covid-19 as Wuhan. The scenario of a single introduction of a mature virus by Maatje Banassi from Fort Detrick is very plausible. It is vital to understand her whereabouts from August to December (at least October to November).
By now the only trustworthy numbers that stood up to time, triangulation, and multiple checks with facts and other numbers, are from Germany, Hong Kong and China Mainland. Of course, the numbers before mid January from China mainland should be discounted as the virus pathology was not well understood and testing methodology had not been perfected. Remember one day the number suddenly jumped by many folds (forgot exactly which day) because more precise diagnostic and testing methods were established. After mid January, no country or region should have any excuse of not having concise up to date numbers or have the situation NOT under control. What has been happening in Italy and Spain is partially unfortunate as their healthcare systems are clearly not up to the task, but what has been happening in the U.S, the most powerful nation ever on earth, defies any logic.
June 2: CDC now says the virus had been in US at least in January. Australia had one of the worst forest fires since June last year, and US West Coast also. Bats in Australia and US West Coast should be examined.
June 14: report Amazon deforestation worst in May. Time to investigate the bats there too.
Oct 13  "Covid: Why bats are not to blame, say scientists": "Outbreaks of emerging diseases have been linked to human destruction of nature. When forests or grasslands are razed to graze cattle, to grow soy or to build roads and settlements, wild animals are forced ever closer to humans and livestock, giving viruses an opportunity to jump ship."
Nov 4: Denmark plans to cull its mink population after coronavirus mutation spreads to humans, which means the virus not necessarily have come from bats alone.
28 Apri 2021: India reports 350,000 cases with near 3,000 deaths per day, actual situation is much worse. The run-away disaster was due to "triple" or multiple mutations, and of course mishandling by the government and deep rooted religious culture. India was relatively unscathed from the original strains of corobavirus, why? Either it takes a lot to hit the Indians given its long history of pure hygiene conditions, or most Indians were partially immune to the original strains as it was originated from there. 

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